Holy Week Blues: Navigating the Hotel Industry's Volatility in 2025

The global hotel sector faces a paradox: while Japan’s hospitality market soars on the wings of its 2025 World EXPO, U.S. properties grapple with a RevPAR plunge during Holy Week. This week’s data from STR Insights paints a stark picture of an industry where regional dynamics and calendar quirks are reshaping investment strategies—and investors must act fast to capitalize on diverging trends.

Lead: The Timing Trap
This week’s STR report revealed a 9.3% year-over-year drop in U.S. hotel RevPAR during Holy Week, driven by occupancy declines and shifting holiday schedules. Yet, across the Pacific, Japan’s hotels saw a staggering 67.9% RevPAR surge as the Osaka EXPO drew millions. This divergence underscores a critical truth: in an era of hyper-localized demand, investors must parse granular data to avoid pitfalls—and seize asymmetric opportunities.

The U.S. Downturn: Seasonal Slump or Structural Shift?

The U.S. hotel sector’s struggles this week stem from more than Easter timing. While the 5.4% drop in occupancy and 1.3% ADR decline align with STR’s attribution to Holy Week’s later calendar placement, deeper trends are at play.

• Transient Travel Rises, Group Demand Crashes: Transient bookings (often leisure travelers) increased by 11.5%, but group demand—particularly in luxury hotels—plunged 40.1%. This mirrors 2019 patterns, suggesting a lingering post-pandemic preference for individualized travel.
• Geographic Winners and Losers: Coastal markets like Myrtle Beach and Norfolk/Virginia Beach thrived, while urban centers such as Las Vegas and Washington, D.C., lagged. The report notes that 28% of U.S. students were on Spring Break this week, up from 3% in 2024—a factor inflating TSA screenings but skewing demand toward family-friendly destinations.

Expert Take: “The U.S. market is caught in a seasonal whiplash,” says CoStar analyst Emily Torres. “Investors need to prioritize coastal and leisure-driven assets while hedging against urban exposure until group bookings stabilize.”

Global Gains: The Event-Driven Rally

While the U.S. stumbles, global markets are roaring—thanks to mega-events and regional tailwinds.

• Japan’s EXPO Bonanza: Osaka’s 2025 World EXPO, which runs through September, is already transforming Japan’s hospitality sector. STR’s data shows RevPAR soaring 67.9%, with occupancy nearing 90% in peak EXPO cities. Nearby hotels in Tokyo and Kyoto are also benefiting from spillover demand.
• Mexico and France Follow: Mexico’s 50% RevPAR jump and France’s 25.9% gain highlight the power of seasonal tourism. Paris, boosted by its Marathon event, saw occupancy hit pre-pandemic levels—a sign of pent-up demand for European travel.

The Path Forward: Diversify, Diversify, Diversify

STR’s forward-looking analysis warns that U.S. performance next week (April 21–27) may improve but remain below 2024 levels due to Easter timing. However, a “cleaner calendar” post-Passover could clarify trends. Meanwhile, global investors have a clear playbook:

1. Focus on Event-Driven Markets: The Osaka EXPO isn’t the only game-changer. Keep an eye on Dubai’s Expo 2023 (extending into 2024) and Brazil’s World Cup tourism boom in late 2025.
2. Target Coastal U.S. Markets: Properties in beachfront destinations like Myrtle Beach and the Jersey Shore are proving resilient. Their transient-heavy demand models align with current traveler preferences.
3. Avoid Urban Luxury Properties: Until group bookings recover, luxury hotels in cities like Las Vegas face headwinds. Investors should favor economy and mid-scale urban hotels instead.

Conclusion: Volatility Demands Precision

The hotel sector’s 2025 volatility isn’t just about supply and demand—it’s a tale of timing, geography, and event-driven spikes. Investors who ignore Japan’s EXPO or U.S. seasonal shifts risk missing out on 67.9% gains—or getting caught in a 9.3% slump. The data is clear: global diversification isn’t optional—it’s essential.

Actionable Takeaway: Allocate 30% of hospitality portfolios to event-driven markets (e.g., Japan, Mexico) and 50% to coastal U.S. assets. Reserve the remaining 20% for urban hotels with flexible pricing models to weather group demand fluctuations.

As the industry pivots toward hyper-localized strategies, the winners will be those who turn granular data into global bets.

Data sources: STR Weekly Insights (April 13–19, 2025), CoStar Group SEC filings.