Holiday Surge Masks Consumer Shifts: Black Friday 2025 Highlights E-commerce Momentum Amid Spending Caution

Thanksgiving Day e-commerce set a new U.S. record at $6.4 billion, up 5.3% year-over-year, fueled by Cyber Week deals, mobile shopping, and AI-powered deal discovery according to data. Adobe confirms Black Friday online sales are on track to hit $11.7 billion, an 8.3% increase, while Cyber Monday is forecast at $14.2 billion, up 6.3%. Globally, Thanksgiving weekend sales reached $35.6 billion, a 6% increase, with Black Friday alone projected to hit $78 billion worldwide this year.

Despite these headline figures, analysts highlight growing consumer skepticism dampening enthusiasm. Spending during the Turkey 5 shopping period has fallen 13% compared to 2019 levels and is expected to drop another 4% this year. Per-shopper spending has declined to $890, reflecting increased bargain-hunting and discount fatigue from extended promotional seasons. Retailers are responding by spreading sales across multiple weeks and doubling down on digital channels, where online sales have surpassed physical stores for six straight years while foot traffic remains flat.

AI-driven personalized deals and mobile shopping convenience continue to accelerate e-commerce growth, particularly in high-demand categories like apparel, footwear, video games, and home appliances. However, the persistence of lower per-shopper spending and long-term declines since 2019 signal that aggressive discounting and prolonged holiday seasons are eroding traditional Black Friday urgency. While retailers leverage technology to capture attention, their ability to reignite full-price demand remains uncertain as economic pressures linger.

Structural Vulnerabilities in Retail Recovery

The National Retail Federation anticipates a sluggish 2025 holiday season, forecasting only 3.7–4.2% sales growth amid persistent high prices and tariffs. This cautious outlook contrasts with broader retail momentum, as total retail sales rose 4.4% year-over-year in Q2 2025.

E-commerce growth has become the primary drag on overall retail performance. Online sales expanded just 5.3% in Q2 2025, marking the slowest rate since late 2022 and extending the 16th consecutive quarter with sub-10% growth. The channel now represents 22.0% of total retail sales, signaling a maturing market approaching saturation.

Multiple headwinds are compressing retailer profitability. Supply chain disruptions continue to cause stock shortages, forcing retailers to offer sparse promotions during peak shopping periods. Early discounting by major retailers like Walmart and Amazon, while intended to stimulate demand, further erodes margins.

Analyst warnings highlight deeper structural risks. The industry's diminished promotional urgency could damage brand positioning long-term. While household balance sheets remain relatively strong, consumers are increasingly prioritizing essentials over discretionary purchases. This behavioral shift, combined with persistent economic uncertainty, threatens to extend the period of restrained retail growth.

E-commerce Dominance and Saturation Risks

Record Thanksgiving Day sales underscore e-commerce's staying power, with Adobe forecasting $11.7 billion in U.S. Black Friday online sales. This momentum pushed retail e-commerce to account for 22.0% of total sales in Q2 2025 according to data, cementing its dominance over physical stores.

Yet growth is cooling: e-commerce sales expanded just 5.3% in Q2, the slowest pace since 2022, as foot traffic stagnates post-pandemic and stretched holiday promotions dull consumer urgency according to analysis. Analysts note retailers now spread sales across weeks, reducing in-store crowds while prioritizing online channels.

Mobile shopping and AI-driven deal platforms continue to fuel gains, with video game console sales surging 740% during Thanksgiving. But this digital dynamism contrasts sharply with flat pedestrian traffic and a 13% decline in Turkey 5 spending since 2019. The 16th straight quarter of sub-10% growth warns that market saturation and economic uncertainty are curbing e-commerce's explosive trajectory.

For investors, the dual trends suggest diminishing returns on digital expansion as retailers face pressure to adapt to both technological innovation and shifting consumer psychology.