Holiday Spending Surges — But the Shocking Divide in Who’s Buying Reveals a Deeper Trend

Black Friday weekend arrived with elevated anticipation this year—and the spending data confirms that consumers showed up, though with a more strategic and price-sensitive approach than in prior cycles. Mastercard SpendingPulse reported a 4.1% year-over-year increase in total Black Friday retail sales (ex-autos), while Adobe Analytics showed online spending reaching $11.8B, a 9.1% gain from 2024’s level. At first glance, these are strong numbers; at second glance, they reveal a consumer who is still alive and kicking—just with a calculator in one hand and a discount filter in the other.

Viewed through a more granular lens, 2025 spending trends began similarly to 2024 but slightly stronger. Adobe data showed Wednesday sales rising from $4.1B in 2024 to $4.3B in 2025, and Thanksgiving spending increasing from $6.1B to $6.4B. These +4.9% moves may not be groundbreaking, but they are steady—suggesting that consumers are increasingly embracing the elongated holiday shopping window. More importantly, it suggests that retailers were effective in pulling demand forward via pre-holiday promotions. The consumer may not be loose-walleted, but they are certainly tactical.

Black Friday itself was the headline event. Adobe’s $11.8B spend represents roughly +9.3% over the prior year’s $10.8B print. Mastercard’s +4.1% total spending growth is directionally consistent with that story. The common denominator is that value drove behavior. Apparel spending rose 5.7%, with jewelry up 2.75% per Mastercard SpendingPulse—data that indicates consumers were buying “gifty but practical” categories rather than high-end discretionary items. The strongest online performance (+10.4% YoY) reinforces that convenience and price-comparison capability have now beaten doorbuster chaos as core consumer experiences.

The categories benefiting the most tell a story about evolving shopping psychology. Apparel saw strong performance both online and in-store, as consumers leaned into seasonal refreshes. Restaurants spending rose +4.5%, courtesy of holiday get-togethers replacing physical shopping trips. Adobe noted that “the magnitude of discounts” was a core driver—retailers leaned hard into deeper markdowns to preserve volume. This signals that pricing sensitivity remains the fulcrum of consumer decision-making.

But beneath the spending surface lies a familiar divide: the K-shaped economy. Higher-income consumers continue to spend comfortably, supported by stock-market gains and real estate appreciation. Meanwhile, Mastercard’s category profile and retail-industry anecdotes suggest low-income consumers are tightening spending—opting for deals, waiting for promotions, and increasingly using Buy-Now-Pay-Later. Adobe forecasts $20.2B of BNPL transactions this holiday period—an +11% YoY increase—clearly showing consumer credit mechanics stepping in when purchasing power doesn’t stretch.

Winners this year include Walmart, TJX (TJ Maxx), Gap, and off-price retail broadly—chains where perceived value is a built-in brand attribute. E-commerce-centric names like Amazon, Shopify-powered sellers, and discount-driven mid-tier brands also look well positioned based on Adobe’s online surge. The losers are more interesting: Target and Bath & Body Works saw softening momentum over the fall and entered the weekend on weaker footing. Bath & Body Works specifically cited a drop in self-gift purchases—a sign that consumers are prioritizing others before splurging on themselves.

One additional note: Mastercard cautioned that its 4.1% headline number isn’t inflation-adjusted. With inflation nearing ~3%, real adjusted growth may be closer to ~1%. The spending is positive—but the margin of real growth is small. In other words, Americans aren’t necessarily buying more; they’re paying more—or at best, just a bit more—while hunting for optimal value.

Retailer pricing strategies clearly worked. Consumers are responsive to price—extremely responsive—and increasingly intelligent in how they shop. As Mastercard observed, “Consumers are showing incredible savviness this season,” shopping early, leveraging discounts, timing purchases, and choosing brands where they feel the dollar goes further.

Ultimately, the Black Friday-through-Cyber Monday arc will tell us whether 2025 holiday spending is merely steady—or quietly accelerating. With Adobe’s 2024 Cyber Monday posting a massive $13.3B number—and 2025’s results still pending—the next 24 hours will confirm whether the consumer is sustaining this momentum or tightening into December. For now, the consumer appears resilient but cautious, still willing to spend—but demanding value for every dollar. If 2025 Cyber Monday meets or exceeds last year’s benchmark, the seasonal narrative shifts firmly from “fragile” to “functional.”