On Holding Stock Rises 3.42% to $42.36 as Technical Indicators Signal Potential Rebound

On Holding (ONON) shares gained 3.42% on the most recent trading session (2025-10-02), closing at $42.36 on robust volume of 6.8 million shares. This positive move follows a period of decline, necessitating a technical assessment of the current landscape using multiple methodologies.
Candlestick Theory
The latest session formed a bullish candlestick closing near the high after testing $40.90, reinforcing the $40.80-$41.00 zone established on 2025-10-01 as a crucial short-term support level. Prior price action shows significant rejection near $43.50-$44.00 (seen repeatedly in late September), solidifying this as resistance. The session ending 2025-09-25 left a bearish engulfing pattern near $45.40, highlighting overhead supply. The recent bounce off $40.80/90 suggests potential stabilization after a downtrend, but confirmation requires closing above $44.00.
Moving Average Theory
The current price ($42.36) sits below the implied descending 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), confirming the primary trend remains bearish. The shorter-term 50-day SMA (approximating price levels near the recent peak $45-47 range) acts as dynamic resistance. A sustained break above the 50-day SMA would be the first technical sign of trend improvement. The sequence (price < 50-day < 100-day < 200-day) is a classic bearish configuration. Near-term convergence may occur around $43-44.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) appears close to generating a bullish crossover on the daily timeframe, as the MACD line (representing the difference between 12-day and 26-day EMAs) converges towards the signal line from deeply negative territory, suggesting dwindling bearish momentum. Simultaneously, the Stochastic Oscillator (KDJ) has likely exited the oversold region (<30) and is rising after reaching oversold levels during the late September sell-off, supporting the notion of a potential short-term bounce. This emerging positive momentum confluence needs monitoring for sustainability.
Bollinger Bands
Recent weeks saw Bollinger Bands contract significantly after the high-volatility drop from $49.81 (2025-08-12) down below $45 by early September. The bands began expanding again during the September decline to $40.80. The current price sits near the lower band after the bounce but remains well within the bands, indicating the current move is not yet an extreme oversold rebound. Volatility remains elevated compared to the mid-year period. A period of band contraction after the recent expansion could signal a pause or reversal setup.
Volume-Price Relationship
The up-day on 2025-10-02 saw significant volume (6.8M shares), exceeding the volume seen on the preceding down-day (7.8M on 2025-10-01, closing near lows). This stronger volume on a positive day adds credence to the potential for a short-term low near $41.00. Notably, the large volume spikes occurred on major down-days (2025-08-14, 2025-08-12) and the initial sharp drop in April, confirming capitulation during those declines. The recent bounce volume, while good, hasn't surpassed those capitulation levels yet. Volume profile suggests stronger conviction behind moves testing $40-41 support than moves attempting to break above $44 resistance recently.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Based on the 14-day calculation window, the RSI has likely rebounded from near or below 30 (oversold territory) in late September towards the mid-40s following the bounce off $40.80. The current RSI estimate appears around 45, moving out of oversold territory but still below the neutral 50 level. This indicates bearish momentum is weakening but a shift to bullish momentum requires the RSI to rise above 50 and sustain it. Divergence hasn't been strongly evident recently. The RSI recovery aligns with the oversold readings from KDJ and the price bounce.
Fibonacci Retracement
Drawing a Fibonacci retracement grid from the significant high of $60.68 (2025-05-27) to the significant low of $39.61 (2025-04-04) provides key levels. The 23.6% retracement resides near $45.60, aligning closely with recent resistance. More critically, the 38.2% retracement level sits near $42.70, and the 50% retracement is near $45.15. The current price near $42.36 trades just above the 38.2% level ($42.70 acts as immediate resistance overhead). Reclaiming the 38.2% level would be modestly positive, while a close above the 50% level ($45.15) would signify a much stronger potential recovery. Recent price failed at the 23.6% level. The $40.80 low respected the prior swing low zone near $41.00.
Concluding Synthesis
Multiple technical indicators suggest On Holding found tentative support near $40.80-$41.00, leading to a bounce evidenced by a bullish candlestick, improving volume dynamics, and bullish crossovers forming in momentum oscillators (MACD, KDJ) from oversold conditions. RSI supports a weakening downtrend. However, the dominant trend remains bearish, confirmed by the price trading below all key moving averages. Significant resistance converges near $43.50-$44.00 (recent rejections/supply zone) and more importantly around $45.15-$45.60 (50% Fibonacci retracement + declining 50-day SMA). Confluence of support exists near $41 and $38.90. Confluence of resistance is strong between $44.00 and $45.60. Sustained bullish momentum requires closing above $45.60 on good volume to challenge the primary downtrend. The current technical posture suggests potential for further short-term upside towards resistance, but the bearish trend prevails until key resistance levels are overcome.