On Holding Stock Plunges 8.26% To $44.21 Amid Technical Breakdown

On Holding (ONON) recently exhibited significant bearish momentum, declining 8.26% to close at $44.21 on August 14, 2025, marking two consecutive days of losses totaling 11.24%. This follows a volatile pattern observed over the past year, which we analyze through multiple technical lenses to assess future probabilities.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action reveals a pronounced bearish pattern. The August 12th session formed a long green candle closing near $49.81 after an 8.95% surge, but this was swiftly negated by consecutive bearish engulfing candles on August 13th and 14th, erasing gains. Key support emerges near $44.02 (August 14th low), aligning with the March 2025 consolidation zone. Resistance is evident at $48.19 (August 13th close), reinforced by the psychological $50 level that capped multiple rallies in July 2025. A close below $44 could trigger further downside targeting $41.31–$42.63 (April 2025 base).
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day and 100-day moving averages recently completed a bearish crossover near $50.20, while the 200-day SMA slopes downward at $51.30, confirming a long-term downtrend. Current price trades well below all three averages, with the 50-day SMA ($50.45) acting as dynamic resistance. This configuration suggests sustained bearish control, though oversold conditions may prompt short-term rebounds toward the 50-day SMA.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows accelerating negative momentum, with the signal line diverging below the MACD line since mid-July. KDJ indicators compound this outlook: the K-line (22) and D-line (29) are plunging toward oversold territory, while the J-line remains suppressed near 10. This alignment suggests persistent selling pressure. A bullish reversal would require MACD convergence and KDJ’s K-line crossing above 20, neither currently evident.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day, 2σ) expanded sharply during the August 12th–14th selloff, reflecting volatility breakout to the downside. Price now hugs the lower band at $44.21, indicating oversold conditions but without stabilization signs. The band width expansion historically precedes short-term mean reversion; a rebound toward the middle band ($49.50) may develop if volatility contracts.
Volume-Price Relationship
The selloff’s validity is confirmed by rising volume, with August 14th volume (14.6M shares) exceeding the 30-day average. Notably, distribution occurred during the August 12th rally (19.4M shares at $49.81), foreshadowing weakness. For recovery, volume must expand decisively on up days—absent since the May 13th surge (14.6M shares, +11.83%), which marked the current downtrend’s origin.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI at 28 signals oversold conditions, matching February 2025 levels that preceded a 15% rebound. However, RSI’s warning nature is apparent: similar readings in April 2025 failed to prevent further losses. Confluence with other indicators (e.g., Bollinger Bands) is essential. A reversal above 30 could support tactical upside, but sustained recovery requires RSI exceeding 50.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the May 13–August 12 rally (low: $41.31, high: $55.95), key retracement zones emerge. The 50% level ($48.63) rejected prices in early August, while the 61.8% support ($45.83) was breached decisively. This leaves the 78.6% level ($43.10) and the May low ($41.31) as critical downside targets. Any bullish reversal would need to reconquer the 38.2% resistance ($51.02).
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence of bearish signals is striking: RSI oversold readings align with Bollinger Band oversold expansion, while volume validates the breakdown below Fib levels. A notable divergence exists between RSI oversold conditions and unabated MACD momentum deterioration, suggesting oversold readings may persist during continued declines. The $43.10–$44.00 zone represents a probabilistic bounce area given Fib and historical support confluence, but reversal confirmation requires volume-backed clearance of $46.50. Until then, the burden of proof remains on bulls.