On Holding Soars 8.4% on Q2 Beat and Guidance Hike—Can This Momentum Sustain?

Summary
• On Holding (ONON) surges 8.4% intraday to $49.57, driven by Q2 sales beating estimates by 6.7%
• CEO Martin Hoffmann signals confidence in pricing resilience amid Vietnam tariffs
• Turnover spikes to 8.08M shares, outpacing 52-week average by 3.66%

On Holding’s stock is trading at its highest level since early 2025 amid a strategic pricing pivot and robust Q2 performance. With a 32% year-over-year sales surge and full-year guidance raised to $2.91B, the Swiss sneaker innovator is capturing market share from legacy brands like Nike. The stock’s 14.3% rally from its 52-week low of $34.59 underscores investor optimism, though technical indicators suggest caution ahead.

Q2 Sales Beat and Tariff Pricing Strategy Ignite Rally
On Holding’s 8.4% intraday surge stems from a 32% year-over-year sales increase to $749M in Q2, exceeding Wall Street’s $705M estimate. CEO Martin Hoffmann confirmed pricing hikes in July offsetting Vietnam tariff impacts, with no slowdown in demand. The company’s gross margin guidance was raised to 60.5–61%, reflecting improved cost management. This performance, coupled with a 50% China sales growth and strong Americas demand, has reinvigorated investor sentiment.

Footwear & Accessories Sector Volatile as ONON Outpaces Peers
The Footwear & Accessories sector (S&P 500 weight: 2.20%) is mixed, with ONON outperforming peers like Nike (NKE, +1.46%) and Deckers (DECK, +3.05%). Skechers (SKX) and Crocs (CROX) lag, down 0.05% and 1.67% respectively. ONON’s 8.77% gain highlights its premium positioning and global expansion, contrasting with legacy brands’ struggles in saturated markets.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on ONON’s Volatility and ETF Correlation
• RSI: 32.24 (oversold)
• MACD: -1.96 (bearish), Signal: -1.51
• 200D MA: $52.17 (above current price)
• Bollinger Bands: 44.01–55.66 (current price at 49.83)

ONON’s technicals suggest a short-term rebound after hitting the lower Bollinger band, but the 200D MA at $52.17 remains a critical resistance. The 32.24 RSI indicates oversold conditions, but the bearish MACD (-1.96) warns of potential consolidation. For options, focus on contracts with moderate delta and high gamma to capitalize on volatility.

Top Option 1: ONON20250815C50
• Code: ONON20250815C50
• Type: Call
• Strike: $50
• Expiry: 2025-08-15
• IV: 52.23% (moderate)
• LVR: 58.20% (high)
• Delta: 0.4368 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.3548 (high decay)
• Gamma: 0.1456 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 474,012
• This call offers high leverage (58.20%) and gamma (0.1456) for a 5% upside scenario, projecting a $51.54 payoff. Ideal for aggressive bulls.

Top Option 2: ONON20250815C52
• Code: ONON20250815C52
• Type: Call
• Strike: $52
• Expiry: 2025-08-15
• IV: 53.88% (moderate)
• LVR: 164.90% (very high)
• Delta: 0.1983 (low)
• Theta: -0.1986 (high decay)
• Gamma: 0.0998 (moderate)
• Turnover: 277,013
• This deep out-of-the-money call provides extreme leverage (164.90%) but requires a 5% move to $51.54 for a $51.54 payoff. High-risk, high-reward.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider ONON20250815C50 into a bounce above $52.17. Conservative traders should watch the 200D MA and RSI for a potential mean reversion setup.

Backtest On Holding Stock Performance
Following an intraday surge of 8% for ONON, the strategy's performance was backtested over a period from August 11, 2020, to July 11, 2025. The results showed a 20.06% return for the strategy, with a benchmark return of 40.06%, resulting in an excess return of -20.01% and a CAGR of 4.92%. The strategy had a maximum drawdown of 0.00% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.12, indicating a relatively low risk profile with minimal losses during volatile periods.

ONON’s Rally Faces 52.17 Hurdle—Here’s What to Watch Now
ONON’s 8.4% surge is fueled by Q2 outperformance and pricing resilience, but technical indicators suggest caution. The 200D MA at $52.17 and Bollinger upper band at $55.66 are critical levels to monitor. If the stock breaks above $52.17, the ONON20250815C50 call offers a high-leverage play. Conversely, a breakdown below $48.65 (intraday low) could trigger a retest of the 52-week low. Sector leader Nike (NKE) is up 1.46%, signaling broader footwear sector optimism. Investors should prioritize liquidity and volatility management in this high-beta name.