On Holding Outlook: A Mixed Technical Picture Amid Divergent Analyst Opinions

Market Snapshot

Headline: Technical neutrality reigns amid conflicting analyst signals. On Holding (ONON.N) is in a state of technical wait-and-see, with internal diagnostic scores hovering near 5.11 out of 10. The stock has seen a recent price drop of 6.08%, despite a mix of bullish and bearish signals.

News Highlights

1. Luxury Market Shifts Recent news highlights a transformation in the global luxury market, particularly in China. With rising tariffs and shifting consumer behavior, luxury brands face headwinds, which could indirectly affect On Holding if it operates within similar sectors. The May 27 report from global analysts suggests luxury demand is evolving, which could influence market sentiment.

2. Trump’s Tariff Increase On May 31, President Donald Trump raised steel tariffs to 50%, a move that could impact manufacturers and potentially ripple into luxury and tech sectors. This policy shift could affect On Holding if it relies on global supply chains or materials subject to tariffs.

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3. Earnings Misses A few recent earnings reports show a pattern of underperformance in luxury and cosmetics sectors. For example, Coty's Q3 2025 earnings missed expectations, showing muted performance in prestige and cosmetics. This trend may affect investor sentiment toward similar firms, including On Holding.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The latest analyst consensus presents a mixed picture. The simple average rating is 4.50, while the performance-weighted rating is 2.77, indicating a significant disparity in expectations. This divergence suggests uncertainty in the stock's future performance.

Looking at the fundamentals, key values include:

• Return on Assets (ROA): 5.25%
• Net profit margin on total assets: 6.99%
• Book-to-Earnings (PB-ROE): 3.97
• EBIT to total revenue: 5.91%
• Net cash flow from operating activities (YoY growth rate): -63.10%

These fundamentals are weighted into an overall score of 6.35 out of 10. The model indicates moderate strength in profitability and asset efficiency, but the negative cash flow growth is a concern.

Money-Flow Trends

On the money-flow front, large investors are showing a negative trend, with inflow ratios ranging from 47.20% (extra-large) to 49.26% (medium). Despite this, small investors are showing a positive trend, with a small-inflow ratio of 50.81%. The overall inflow ratio is 48.29%, slightly below 50%, suggesting cautious sentiment from big money. This contrast between retail and institutional flows could indicate short-term volatility ahead.

Key Technical Signals

On the technical side, On Holding is showing a mixed signal with a technical score of 5.11 out of 10. Recent chart patterns include:

• MACD Death Cross (internal diagnostic score: 7.75) – a bearish signal, though the score suggests it might be a weak one.
• WR Overbought (score: 6.58) – a neutral signal indicating some overbought conditions.
• Bullish Engulfing (score: 1) – a very weak bullish signal, with historical win rates of just 28.57%.

These indicators highlight a lack of strong directional signals. The market is in a volatile, indecisive state, with long and short signals in balance. As the technical indicators are relatively scarce over the last five days, investors should remain cautious and watch for a clearer trend.

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Conclusion

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Given the mixed technical picture, divergent analyst views, and mixed money flows, On Holding appears to be in a holding pattern. Investors may benefit from waiting for a clearer trend or a significant fundamental or technical catalyst before committing capital. While the fundamentals show moderate strength, the recent price drop and weak technical signals suggest caution. Watch for updates on earnings or any meaningful shifts in market sentiment.