On Holding Outlook - Mixed Signals Amid Analyst Optimism and Weak Technicals

Market SnapshotOutlook: Caution advised — Despite a recent price rise of 11.50%, technical indicators are underperforming, with an internal diagnostic score of 3.13 and bearish signals dominating. News HighlightsRecent developments suggest shifting dynamics in the luxury sector: China's luxury market evolves — May 27, 2025 reports highlight a change in Chinese consumers' appetite for luxury goods, signaling potential long-term shifts in demand for global luxury brands, including On Holding. Steel tariffs rise under Trump — On May 31, 2025, President Trump announced a 50% increase in steel tariffs. This could affect On Holding's material costs and profit margins if it relies on steel in its operations or supply chain. Collaborative luxury sedan launch — The May 30 launch of the Huawei-JAC luxury sedan Maextro S800 shows renewed global interest in high-end offerings, which may align with On Holding’s strategic direction. Analyst Views & FundamentalsAnalyst sentiment is broadly positive, with a simple average rating of 4.50 and a performance-weighted rating of 5.28. However, opinions are not in full alignment — the rating consistency is described as “There are differences,” with 3 “Strong Buy” and 3 “Buy” ratings from six active analysts over the past 20 days.

From a performance history standpoint: Cristina Fernandez (Telsey Advisory Group) is rated “excellent” with a historical win rate of 63.6% and an average return of 4.22%. Michael Binetti (Evercore ISI Group) and Joseph Civello (Truist Securities) both have 100% win rates but with fewer data points. Tom Nikic (Needham) is rated “poor” with a 37.5% historical win rate and only a 1.88% average return. These mixed views suggest analysts see potential in On Holding but with varying degrees of confidence. The positive ratings align with the current price trend, but technical indicators suggest caution. Money-Flow TrendsBig-money and retail investor flows are showing divergent trends. While the overall fund-flow score is 7.84 (good), the overall trend is negative due to bearish signals from large and extra-large institutional players. Specifically: Small investors are showing a 49.73% inflow ratio with a negative trend. Medium-sized investors show a positive trend and a 50.55% inflow ratio. Large and extra-large funds are trending negative, with inflow ratios of 48.54% and 47.75%, respectively. This mix suggests a cautious stance from larger market participants, while smaller retail investors are showing some optimism. Key Technical SignalsOn the technical front, On Holding is facing bearish pressure, with two key indicators signaling weakness: Williams %R Oversold — This indicator has an internal diagnostic score of 2.46, indicating weak strength and mixed historical performance (47.22% win rate, -0.25% average return). RSI Oversold — This indicator scores 3.81 — slightly better than Williams %R, but still low. It has a win rate of 46.67% and an average return of 1.61%. Both indicators have appeared consistently over the last five days, from November 5 to November 11, 2025. The technical analysis summary indicates that momentum is weak, with more bearish than bullish signals and no positive indicators — leading to a suggestion to avoid the stock. ConclusionOn Holding appears to be in a tricky position — analysts are optimistic, but technical indicators are bearish, and money flows are mixed. The internal diagnostic technical score of 3.13 and the dominance of negative indicators suggest caution. Consider waiting for clearer technical signals and monitor the impact of recent global developments, such as steel tariffs and luxury market shifts. If the stock experiences a pull-back and technical indicators stabilize, it may present a more attractive entry point for investors.