On Holding Extends Slide With 4% Drop As Technicals Signal Persistent Downtrend

On Holding (ONON) concludes the recent session with a 4.02% decline to $43.92, extending its losing streak to two consecutive days with a total drop of 4.23%. This downward movement sets the stage for a technical assessment of its one-year price trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlesticks highlight bearish momentum. The session ending 2025-09-25 formed a long red candle closing near its low ($43.92, low $43.39), decisively breaching the prior day's low ($45.5) and indicating strong selling pressure. This follows an evening star pattern structure visible around the late August peak (Aug 21-22: long green, small body, long red) which preceded the sharp decline. Current price action finds support near the late August swing low of $44.21; failure to hold this level could target sub-$43.00. Resistance is evident near $46.80-$47.00, where prices stalled earlier in September and at the recent September 19th high ($45.61).
Moving Average Theory
A significant bearish signal emerged recently as the 50-day moving average (approx. $45.85) crossed below the 100-day moving average (approx. $47.32), confirming a deterioration in the medium-term trend. The price is currently trading well below all key MAs (50-day, 100-day, and 200-day ~$48.92), firmly placing On Holding in a downtrend on these timeframes. The 200-day MA continues to slope downwards, reinforcing the established long-term bearish bias. The convergence of price below the declining shorter-term averages reinforces strong downward pressure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) remains entrenched in negative territory below the signal line, showing no signs of a bullish crossover. Its persistent stance deep below the zero line confirms robust bearish momentum. The KDJ indicator (9,3,3) recently dipped back into oversold territory (K and D likely near/below 30). While oversold conditions can precede rebounds, the KDJ has been oscillating at low levels since late August without triggering a sustained recovery, suggesting persistent weakness. Recent attempts by the KDJ to exit oversold territory were quickly reversed, aligning with the renewed selling pressure.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands witnessed significant expansion during the sharp sell-off in mid-August, reflecting high volatility. Bands have since contracted notably, indicating a period of relative price consolidation and lower volatility within the downtrend. The price is currently trading near the lower band ($43.50-$44.00 estimate), testing this potential support. A sustained break below the lower band would signal strengthening bearish momentum and potentially accelerate downward movement. The contraction phase often precedes a volatility expansion; the direction of the ensuing move warrants close monitoring.
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume provides valuable context for recent declines. The 4.02% drop on 2025-09-25 occurred on significantly higher volume (7.63 million shares) compared to the preceding three sessions, suggesting conviction behind the move. Volume expanded notably during the capitulation event in mid-August (e.g., 14.6 million shares on Aug 14th, down 8.26%), confirming the intense selling pressure seen during that breakdown. Conversely, volume was often lighter on up days within the September consolidation phase, suggesting lackluster buying interest and failing to validate any nascent recovery attempts convincingly. This volume profile supports the dominant bearish trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI is currently estimated near 38, moving lower from neutral territory. It resides firmly below the key 50 level, confirming bearish momentum but not yet signaling oversold conditions (typically <30). Throughout the recent downtrend, the RSI has consistently failed to breach 55-60 on recovery attempts, indicating limited underlying strength. While not oversold, the RSI has made a higher low in late September compared to mid-August as price made a lower low, suggesting a developing positive divergence – a potential, though not guaranteed, early warning sign that downside momentum might be slowing, requiring price confirmation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the significant decline from the late June swing high ($60.68) to the mid-August swing low ($44.21) provides key levels:
50% Retracement: $52.44 (Major resistance, aligns with the late August bounce failure)
38.2% Retracement: $50.03
23.6% Retracement: $47.38 (Near recent Sept/Oct highs and a key resistance zone)
Current Price: $43.92
Price has been rejected multiple times near the 23.6% level ($47.38) during the September consolidation and bounce attempts, solidifying it as significant resistance. The latest break lower targets a retest of the prior August low ($44.21). Failure to hold this level opens the downside towards the 100% projection at $43.50 and potentially lower.
Confluence and Divergence Summary
Significant bearish confluence exists around the $46.80-$47.38 resistance zone, marked by the recent September highs, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, the declining 50-day MA, and the psychological $47 level. The current break below $45 support, confirmed by high volume, targets the crucial $44.21 August low, where some support exists alongside the Bollinger Lower Band. The primary divergence of note is the developing positive divergence on the RSI (higher RSI low vs. lower price low), suggesting weakening downside momentum. However, this divergence requires confirmation by actual bullish price action (e.g., reclaiming $45 decisively) and stands against the strong bearish confluence of price below all key MAs, sustained negative MACD, failure at Fib levels, and bearish volume patterns. While technically oversold on some short-term oscillators (KDJ), the overall technical picture for On Holding remains decisively bearish, with the path of least resistance appearing lower unless a decisive recovery above $46.80-$47.38 resistance materializes.