Hims & Hers Crashes After Q2 Miss — Is the GLP‑1 Boom Enough to Spark a Big Bounce?

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Hims & Hers Health (NYSE: HIMS) sits at the intersection of healthcare, wellness, and the artificial intelligence revolution reshaping digital health platforms. Once a niche telehealth player, the company has rapidly scaled into one of the most disruptive names in personalized healthcare, powered by surging demand for weight-loss solutions, including GLP‑1 therapies. But the stock’s meteoric rise has also made it one of the more volatile growth names on the market. After reporting Q2 results last night, shares fell sharply, underscoring the tension between its strong fundamentals and near‑term risks. With the stock pulling back toward technical support in the $53–$55 range, traders face the question of whether this is a dip worth buying—or a warning that growth has hit turbulence.

The Q2 numbers were impressive on a year‑over‑year basis but fell short against Wall Street’s lofty expectations. Revenue rose 73% to $544.8 million, landing just shy of the $551.6 million consensus. Adjusted EBITDA was a bright spot at $82.2 million, well ahead of the $73.5 million forecast, while net income surged to $42.5 million, reflecting the company’s growing scale and operational leverage. Earnings per share hit $0.17, keeping the company profitable as it aggressively expands. Despite these wins, guidance for Q3 came in lighter than expected: $570–$590 million in revenue versus consensus $582.8 million, and $60–$70 million in adjusted EBITDA compared to estimates of $77.3 million. Management reaffirmed its full‑year guidance of $2.3–$2.4 billion in revenue and $295–$335 million in adjusted EBITDA.

The key growth engine remains the company’s personalized weight‑loss program, anchored by GLP‑1 therapies. Hims emphasized that customers using GLP‑1s for six months lost an average of 10.3% of body weight, with 75% remaining on treatment and most reporting manageable side effects. Engagement levels are high—90% of GLP‑1 users download the app, averaging 1.5 interactions per week in the first three months. These metrics underscore why GLP‑1 adoption has surged, with U.S. commercial GLP‑1 revenue nearly doubling year‑over‑year. The company also confirmed plans to expand internationally, targeting Canada in 2026 with generic semaglutide, where two‑thirds of adults are overweight or obese.

But GLP‑1s also highlight the risks. Earlier this year, the FDA resolved the semaglutide shortage, limiting access to compounded GLP‑1s that Hims had leaned on. While the company continues to offer certain compounded versions under statutory exemptions, management acknowledged availability remains a potential headwind. Moreover, gross margins fell to 76%, down 500bps year‑over‑year, as the weight‑loss specialty—while lucrative in demand—carries lower profitability than some of Hims’ other verticals.

Beyond GLP‑1 dynamics, the company is investing heavily in expansion. Subscribers grew to over 2.4 million, up 31% year‑over‑year, but monthly revenue per subscriber slipped to $74 from $84 in Q1, reflecting offboarding of some GLP‑1 users and a shift toward more affordable daily plans. Management pointed to continued growth in dermatology, oral weight loss, and sexual health, with a launch into hormone therapy later this year and longevity care in 2026. Internationally, the recent ZAVA acquisition expands Hims’ footprint in the U.K. and sets up entries into Germany, Ireland, and France.

Financially, the quarter carried warning flags. Free cash flow turned negative at $69 million due to working capital investments and pharmacy infrastructure CapEx. While management expects cash generation to normalize in the back half of the year, it underscores the cost of scaling at this pace. The company does sit on a sizable cash cushion of $1.1 billion, bolstered by a recent $1 billion convertible note offering, but the debt load could pressure flexibility if growth slows or margins compress further.

Risks go beyond GLP‑1 availability and cash flow. Management flagged higher expenses in Q3 tied to seasonal new hires, and analysts probed the risk of marketing efficiency volatility. International expansion adds regulatory complexity and execution risk, particularly with planned generic GLP‑1 launches in Canada. Analysts also asked about potential tariff or supply chain risks around semaglutide sourcing; management pushed back, noting all suppliers are FDA‑registered and rigorously tested, but it remains an area to monitor as geopolitical trade tensions escalate.

Technically, the stock’s sharp post‑earnings pullback brings it into an important support zone. Shares are holding the $53–$55 range, with both the 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages providing a cushion. After Monday’s broader market rebound, traders will be watching closely to see if Hims can find footing here and bounce. Given its momentum and the still‑bullish long‑term growth story, this setup could attract short‑term buyers even as longer‑term investors remain cautious.

In sum, Hims & Hers delivered a strong quarter by most measures: massive year‑over‑year growth, surging GLP‑1 adoption, expanding international opportunities, and reaffirmed full‑year guidance. Yet the first‑ever revenue miss as a public company, margin compression, and negative free cash flow highlight the growing pains of scaling. For traders, the $53–$55 support area looks like a potential bounce zone in the near term. For longer‑term investors, the story remains attractive but comes with execution risks and valuation concerns that argue for patience. As management eyes $6.5 billion in revenue and $1.3 billion in EBITDA by 2030, the stakes—and the scrutiny—are only getting higher.

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