Hims & Hers' Canadian Gamble: Can Generic Semaglutide Unlock a $4 Billion Market?

The Canadian market for semaglutide-based medications—best known as Ozempic and Wegovy—is on the cusp of a seismic shift. In January 2026, data exclusivity for Novo Nordisk's patents will expire, paving the way for generic versions of the drug. For telehealth disruptor Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), this moment represents a rare opportunity to seize first-mover advantage in a high-growth, underpenetrated market. With its scalable care model and strategic partnerships, Hims could position itself as the go-to platform for affordable access to a drug now synonymous with weight management and diabetes care.

The Market Opportunity: A $4 Billion Prize, Ready to Be Claimed

The Canadian semaglutide market generated $1.18 billion in 2024 and is projected to balloon to $4.03 billion by 2035. Yet this growth is currently constrained by sky-high prices: branded Ozempic and Wegovy cost upward of CAD $400 per month. Generic versions, expected to undercut these prices by 50–80%, could unlock demand from millions of patients priced out of the current market.

The timeline is clear: once data exclusivity ends in January 2026, generics like those from Sandoz and Apotex will flood the market. Hims, which has already announced plans to partner with approved manufacturers, aims to be among the first to offer these lower-cost alternatives through its telehealth platform. This isn't just about selling pills—it's about building a sticky ecosystem that ties prescription drugs to personalized care, from virtual consultations to medication management.

The Strategic Play: First-Mover Advantage Meets Scalability

Hims' strategy hinges on two pillars: speed and integration. By aligning its launch timeline with the January 2026 expiration, Hims can capture patients and providers seeking the cheapest, most accessible path to semaglutide. Its telehealth infrastructure—already used for dermatology, mental health, and sexual wellness—can seamlessly incorporate generic semaglutide prescriptions, creating a one-stop shop for chronic care.

Crucially, Hims' model scales with minimal marginal costs. Once the backend systems are in place, adding semaglutide to its offerings doesn't require physical infrastructure. This contrasts with traditional pharmacies or clinics, which face logistical and regulatory hurdles to adapt.

The company's valuation currently reflects skepticism about its ability to sustain growth. But if Hims executes its semaglutide play, it could pivot from a niche player to a leader in a market poised for explosive expansion.

Risks and Considerations

The path isn't without obstacles. Regulatory delays or manufacturing bottlenecks could push generic availability past 2026, disrupting Hims' timeline. Competitors like Sandoz may prioritize direct-to-consumer sales, sidelining partnerships. And while semaglutide's demand is robust, there's no guarantee patients will choose Hims over established healthcare providers.

Moreover, Novo Nordisk isn't standing still. Its new drug Amycretin, entering phase 3 trials in 2026, could siphon demand. But even if Amycretin succeeds, it won't negate the need for affordable semaglutide—especially as generics carve out a price-sensitive segment of the market.

The Investment Case: Betting on Execution

Hims' stock trades at a fraction of its 2021 peak, with a market cap of just $530 million as of July 2025. This undervaluation presents an intriguing entry point if the company can:
1. Secure timely regulatory approvals for its generic partnerships.
2. Demonstrate cost advantages that outpace competitors.
3. Integrate semaglutide into its existing care pathways, boosting customer retention.

Currently, Hims trades at a discount to peers, despite its lower burn rate and higher gross margins. A successful 2026 launch could reposition it as a value play in a sector primed for growth.

Conclusion: A Risky, but Rewarding Gamble

Hims & Hers' Canadian push is a high-stakes bet on timing and execution. The company's ability to leverage first-mover advantage in a $4 billion market—backed by a scalable, integrated care model—could redefine its trajectory. Investors should watch closely for regulatory milestones in late 2025 and early 2026, as well as Hims' partnerships with generic manufacturers. For those willing to take a calculated risk, the payoff could be substantial: a piece of a market primed to explode, led by a platform uniquely positioned to capitalize on it.