The High-Protein Trend and Its Impact on Consumer Beverage Stocks

The global high-protein beverage market is undergoing a seismic shift, driven by a confluence of health, fitness, and convenience trends. By 2025, this segment is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.5%, with the instant protein beverages market alone expected to expand to $3.6 billion by 2035. Major beverage chains, including Starbucks, Dunkin', and Peet's Coffee, are now at a crossroads: adapt to the high-protein wave or risk obsolescence in a rapidly evolving consumer landscape.

The High-Protein Revolution: A $300 Billion Opportunity

The high-protein beverage market is no longer a niche. With 85% of U.S. consumers actively seeking to increase their protein intake (per a 2024 Chobani-commissioned survey), the category has become a $300 billion global opportunity. Ready-to-drink (RTD) protein shakes, plant-based alternatives, and functional ingredients like collagen and probiotics are reshaping consumer expectations. For beverage chains, this trend represents both a threat and an opportunity.

Starbucks, for instance, has responded with its protein cold foam, a 15-gram protein, no-sugar-added modifier for cold beverages. This innovation aligns with the “proffee” (protein + coffee) trend, popularized on platforms like TikTok. Early results are promising: cold foam sales grew 23% year-over-year in Q3 2025, even as U.S. same-store sales declined.

Starbucks: A Strategic Bet on Health-Forward Innovation

Starbucks' pivot to high-protein offerings is part of its broader “Back to Starbucks” strategy, which includes menu simplification, operational efficiency, and digital ecosystem expansion. The protein cold foam is a masterstroke in this plan, targeting Gen Z and fitness-conscious consumers while leveraging the brand's 34 million Starbucks Rewards members for cross-selling.

Financially, the company's Q3 2025 earnings revealed a 47% drop in net income to $558 million, but revenue rose 4% to $9.5 billion. The protein cold foam's success—alongside menu streamlining and the Green Apron Service initiative—has driven investor optimism. Analysts at RBC Capital and BMO Capital raised price targets to $110 and $115, respectively, betting on Starbucks' ability to offset rising labor costs with durable cost savings.

However, Starbucks faces challenges. Its current P/E ratio of 33.44 is a premium valuation that may not be justified until the company demonstrates sustained sales growth. Risks include execution hurdles with new products and competition from health-focused rivals like Chobani and Health-Ade.

Dunkin' and Peet's: Divergent Paths in a Protein-Driven Era

While Starbucks leads the charge, competitors are taking different approaches. Dunkin' is focusing on affordability and convenience, emphasizing its “modern soda” strategy and low-sugar CSDs. Though it hasn't yet entered the high-protein beverage space, the Keurig Dr Pepper State of Beverages Trend Report notes that 46% of consumers would pay more for premium CSDs, suggesting untapped potential for protein-infused offerings.

Peet's Coffee, meanwhile, is doubling down on premiumization and sustainability. Its clean-label, organic coffee aligns with the high-protein trend's emphasis on natural ingredients. While Peet's has no protein-based beverages, its brand positioning could allow it to capture a segment of the $14.71 billion high-protein coffee market by 2034 (projected to grow at a 12.6% CAGR).

Chobani, though not a traditional coffee chain, is expanding into high-protein drinks and shakes. Its Greek yogurt-based products and plant-based innovations position it as a direct competitor in the meal replacement and recovery beverage segments.

Valuation Implications and Investment Considerations

The high-protein trend is a macroeconomic tailwind for beverage stocks, but its impact varies by company. Starbucks' aggressive innovation and brand loyalty make it a top pick for investors seeking exposure to the trend. However, its valuation premium must be justified by consistent sales growth and margin expansion.

For Dunkin', the key is to balance affordability with health-conscious offerings. A late entry into the high-protein market could dilute its value proposition, but its broad consumer base and convenience-focused model offer upside if executed well.

Peet's Coffee remains a long-term play. Its premiumization strategy aligns with the high-protein trend's demand for quality and transparency, but its limited menu and smaller scale may hinder rapid growth.

Conclusion: A Protein-Driven Future

The high-protein beverage market is no longer a passing fad—it's a structural shift in consumer behavior. For beverage chains, the ability to innovate and adapt will determine their relevance in the coming decade. Starbucks is leading the charge, but competitors like Dunkin' and Peet's must act swiftly to avoid being left behind.

Investment Advice:
- Starbucks (SBUX): Buy with a 12–18 month time horizon. Target price: $115 (based on analyst consensus).
- Dunkin' Brands (DNKN): Hold for now. Monitor for high-protein product launches and same-store sales trends.
- Peet's Coffee (PEET): Long-term hold. Position for premiumization-driven growth.

As the high-protein trend accelerates, investors who position themselves early in this space are likely to reap significant rewards. The key is to identify companies that can balance innovation, operational efficiency, and brand loyalty in a market where health and convenience reign supreme.