Hidden Bullish Divergence and the Altcoin Santa Rally in December 2025

The December 2025 Santa Rally, a historical seasonal trend in financial markets, is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for altcoins like Zcash (ZEC), Aster (AST), and Solana (SOL). While macroeconomic headwinds-such as the unwinding of the yen carry trade and uneven ETF inflows-pose risks, technical and on-chain signals suggest strategic entry points for investors willing to navigate volatility. This analysis dissects the interplay between hidden bullish divergence, macro dynamics, and institutional flows to identify altcoins with the strongest reversal potential.

Zcash (ZEC): Privacy Narrative Fuels Divergence

Zcash (ZEC) has emerged as a standout performer in late 2025, with a hidden bullish divergence forming on its price action. Between November 11 and 22, ZEC created a higher low in price while the RSI formed a lower low, a classic sign of waning bearish momentum and a potential trend continuation according to technical analysis. This divergence, coupled with ZEC trading above $500 and strong support levels, has drawn attention from industry figures like Arthur Hayes and Naval Ravikant, who have highlighted ZEC's privacy-focused narrative according to market commentary.

On-chain metrics reinforce this optimism. ZEC's negative correlation with Bitcoin-strengthening even as BTC declined-suggests it is capturing demand for alternative narratives according to on-chain data. If ZEC breaks above $548, the next targets are $650 and $1,000, with institutional adoption of privacy-preserving technologies likely to accelerate in 2026 according to industry forecasts.

However, ZEC's trajectory is not immune to macro risks. The yen carry trade unwind, driven by rising Japanese bond yields and potential BOJ rate hikes, has increased pressure on high-risk assets according to market analysis. A stronger yen (currently trading at 155.47 USD/JPY) reduces the appeal of dollar-denominated crypto investments, potentially dampening ZEC's rally according to financial commentary. Investors should monitor ZEC's ability to hold above $500 while tracking yen carry trade dynamics.

Solana (SOL): On-Chain Strength Amid Macro Headwinds

Solana (SOL) faces a more complex landscape. At $156, it is grappling with technical resistance and corporate selloffs, despite record ETF inflows and favorable U.S. Treasury staking regulations according to market reports. On-chain metrics, however, reveal resilience: active addresses and transactions have risen by 10% and 8%, respectively, outpacing Ethereum and Hyperliquid according to on-chain data. SOL's Total Value Locked (TVL) of $12 billion remains the highest among major blockchains, with growth in real-world assets and liquidity pools according to financial analysis.

A critical test for SOL lies in breaking above $172. If successful, the coin could target $200 and $250, but this depends on reduced corporate selling pressure and improved macro conditions according to market forecasts. The yen carry trade unwind adds another layer of uncertainty: as Japanese investors shift capital to safer assets, demand for risk-on cryptos like SOL may wane according to macro analysis.

Aster (AST): Mixed Signals and Countertrend Potential

Aster (AST) presents a mixed picture. On the 2-hour timeframe, AST is holding above $0.99, with key demand zones between $0.99 and $1.06 acting as critical support according to technical analysis. RSI at 36 and a slightly positive MACD histogram suggest weakening bearish momentum, hinting at a potential countertrend rally according to market indicators. However, the D1 trend remains bearish, with price trading below key EMAs according to technical analysis.

A strategic entry point for AST could materialize if it reclaims the D1 pivot at $1.09 or the Bollinger mid at $1.10 according to technical analysis. A breakdown below $0.99, however, could push the price toward $0.93 and $0.90, reinforcing the bearish bias according to market signals. The yen carry trade unwind and selective ETF inflows into DeFi platforms like Uniswap and Fluid DEX further complicate AST's outlook according to market analysis.

Strategic Entry Points and Macro Risks

For investors seeking to capitalize on the December 2025 Santa Rally, the following levels and conditions warrant attention:
- Zcash (ZEC): Buy on a break above $548 with a stop-loss below $500.
- Solana (SOL): Target a breakout above $172, with a stop-loss at $156.
- Aster (AST): Enter on a retest of $1.09, with a stop-loss below $0.99.

Macro risks, however, cannot be ignored. The yen carry trade unwind has already triggered risk-off sentiment, and geopolitical uncertainties could amplify volatility according to market analysis. While historical patterns suggest a late-year rebound, the current environment-marked by high leverage in carry trades-introduces unpredictability according to financial commentary.

Conclusion

The December 2025 Santa Rally holds promise for altcoins with strong technical and on-chain fundamentals, but success hinges on navigating macroeconomic turbulence. Zcash's privacy narrative, Solana's on-chain resilience, and Aster's countertrend potential offer compelling entry points for risk-tolerant investors. However, the yen carry trade unwind and uneven ETF inflows demand caution. As always, position sizing and stop-loss placement will be critical in balancing optimism with prudence.