HF Sinclair 2025 Q1 Earnings Misses Targets as Net Income Falls 100.6%

HF Sinclair (DINO) reported its fiscal 2025 Q1 earnings on May 01st, 2025. HF Sinclair's Q1 results fell short of expectations, with a reported loss of $0.02 per share compared to a profit the previous year. The company missed revenue targets, reporting $6.37 billion against higher figures from the prior year. Guidance was held steady, with an optimistic outlook for refining margins and strategic priorities, but the stock's price movement reflects mixed investor sentiment.

Revenue
HF Sinclair's revenue for the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 9.3% to $6.37 billion, compared to $7.03 billion in the same quarter of the previous year. The refining segment contributed $5.65 billion, marking a significant portion of the total revenue. The renewables segment brought in $190 million, while the marketing segment generated $686 million. The lubricants and specialties segment added $638 million, and the midstream segment contributed $156 million. Meanwhile, corporate, other, and eliminations accounted for a negative impact of $951 million, resulting in the consolidated revenue figure.

Earnings/Net Income
HF Sinclair swung to a loss of $0.02 per share in 2025 Q1 from a profit of $1.57 per share in 2024 Q1, marking a 101.3% negative change. The company reported a net loss of $2 million in 2025 Q1, a significant deterioration from the net income of $317 million achieved in 2024 Q1. The EPS results indicate a weak performance in the current quarter.

Post-Earnings Price Action Review
Following the earnings report, HF Sinclair (DINO) stock showed varied results across different time frames. The revenue's 3-day win rate stood at 52.31%, suggesting a slight increase in stock price shortly after the earnings release. However, the 10-day win rate declined to 50.24%, and the 30-day win rate dropped further to 47.93%, indicating a less consistent long-term performance. Net income reports showed a more stable response, with a 3-day win rate of 50.24% and a slightly higher 10-day win rate of 50.79%. Over 30 days, the win rate decreased to 49.20%, reflecting moderate medium-term returns. EPS figures showed the most volatility, with the 3-day win rate at 47.93%, declining to 45.71% over 10 days and further to 42.86% over 30 days. In summary, while HF Sinclair's earnings metrics demonstrated some short-term gains, longer-term performance remained unpredictable, with revenue and net income metrics offering more consistent results compared to EPS.

CEO Commentary
Tim Go, Chief Executive Officer of HF Sinclair, highlighted strong results in the Marketing, Midstream, and Lubricants & Specialties sectors, along with sequential improvements in Refining despite market challenges. He expressed optimism regarding recent enhancements in refining margins and emphasized the company's commitment to executing strategic priorities aimed at maximizing value across all business segments.

Guidance
Looking ahead, HF Sinclair anticipates continued improvement in refining margins and remains focused on executing its strategic priorities. The company is optimistic about capturing value across its business segments while navigating market uncertainties and is committed to maintaining a regular quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share.

Additional News
On April 5, 2025, HF Sinclair's stock hit a new 52-week low after Mizuho lowered their price target from $45 to $40, maintaining a neutral rating. Other analysts, including Barclays, Wells Fargo, TD Cowen, and JPMorgan Chase & Co., have also adjusted their price targets and ratings for HF Sinclair in recent months. Despite these changes, the company maintains a "Hold" consensus rating with a target price of $46.50. Moreover, insider Franklin Myers increased his position by purchasing 5,000 shares, reflecting a 3.35% boost in his holdings. Institutional investors have been adjusting their stakes in HF Sinclair, with several firms increasing or modifying their holdings during the fourth quarter.