Hess Stock Surges 4.82% on Bullish Breakout With Heavy Volume

Hess (HES) closed at $150.23, gaining 4.82% on elevated volume in the latest session, signaling strong bullish momentum. The following technical analysis synthesizes key indicators and patterns derived from historical price data.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action reveals a decisive breakout pattern. The 7/8 session formed a long green candle that engulfed the preceding three trading days' range, closing near the high of $150.32. This follows a consolidation phase between $138–$145 from late June to early July. The breakout above the $145 resistance (tested multiple times in June) confirms bullish intent. Immediate support now rests at $143.30–$143.50 (prior resistance and the 7/7 close), with secondary support at $138.25–$138.50 (late-June lows). Yearly resistance looms near $160–$161 (March–April highs).
Moving Average Theory
The moving average configuration exhibits a robust uptrend. The 50-day MA (approximated at $142) and 100-day MA (~$139) slope upward, with the price trading decisively above both. Crucially, the 50-day crossed above the 200-day MA (~$137) in late Q1 2025, establishing a golden cross that has underpinned the broader bullish trend. The stacked alignment (price > 50-day > 100-day > 200-day MA) signals sustained bullish momentum. A decisive close below the 50-day MA would be needed to invalidate this structure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows widening positive momentum, with the MACD line accelerating above its signal line following a crossover in early July. This aligns with the price breakout. However, the KDJ oscillator presents a cautionary signal: The %K (99.25) and %D (~95) have entered extreme overbought territory (>90), reflecting the velocity of the 7/8 rally. While MACD confirms trend strength, KDJ's overextension suggests heightened susceptibility to short-term pullbacks or consolidation, though such divergences can persist in strong trends.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Band width expanded sharply on 7/8 after a prolonged contraction during the June consolidation, indicating a volatility breakout. The close near the upper band ($150.80, approximated) demonstrates aggressive bullish conviction. Historically, similar expansions (e.g., early April and mid-March) preceded sustained directional moves. A close back inside the bands would signal exhaustion, but the current expansion supports continuation bias.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged to 4.49 million shares on the 7/8 rally—over 50% above the 30-day average—validating the breakout. This follows a pattern of accumulation during the June consolidation, where advances (e.g., 6/11 and 6/17) occurred on above-average volume while pullbacks saw lighter activity. The volume profile confirms institutional participation, increasing confidence in the breakout’s sustainability.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI has surged to ~78, entering overbought territory (>70) for the first time since April’s sell-off. While this warns of short-term overheating, note that RSI can remain elevated in strong trends (e.g., it held >60 for weeks during Q1 2025’s rally). The current reading’s context—emerging from a two-month consolidation—suggests it may be early to interpret this as a reversal signal.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the June swing low ($138.25 on 6/27) and the 7/8 high ($150.32) yields key retracement levels: 23.6% ($147.47), 38.2% ($145.71), and 50% ($144.28). Confluence exists at $145.70–$146.00 (38.2% Fib aligned with June’s resistance-turned-support). This zone should provide robust support if a pullback materializes. The 61.8% level ($142.86) coincides with the 50-day MA.
Confluence and Divergence
Strong confluence supports the bullish thesis: volume-confirmed breakout, moving average alignment, MACD acceleration, and Bollinger expansion. However, overbought KDJ and RSI readings present a divergence, warning of near-term exhaustion risk. The most probable outcome is a consolidation or shallow pullback toward $145–$147 (Fib/price support) before further upside. A sustained close below $143 would indicate weakness, whereas holding above $147 could signal continuation.