Hesai Group (HSAI) Surges 10.76% on Intraday Rally – What’s Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• Hesai Group (HSAI) rockets to a 52-week high of $27.77, surging 10.76% in under 4 hours.
• Toyota design win and 46% Q1 revenue surge underpin bullish momentum.
• Options volume spikes 793,603 shares, with call options on 25-strike contracts dominating.

Today’s intraday frenzy in HSAI reflects a confluence of strategic wins and operational progress. The stock’s 10.76% surge—driven by a $27.77 intraday high—positions it at a critical inflection point. With a 46% revenue surge in Q1 and a legal victory over Ouster, Hesai’s rally is no accident. Traders are now parsing whether this momentum can sustain amid a volatile sector backdrop.

Toyota Design Win and Earnings Optimism Ignite HSAI
Hesai’s 10.76% intraday surge is anchored by two pivotal catalysts: a new design win with Toyota for its ATX lidar in a China-based joint venture and a 46% year-over-year revenue surge in Q1 2025. The Toyota partnership, announced on August 14, secures HSAI’s ATX lidar for mass production in 2026, validating its market leadership. Concurrently, Q1 results showed a 42% gross margin and 33% global automotive lidar market share, with non-GAAP breakeven achieved. Analysts’ upward revision of HSAI’s full-year earnings estimates by 7.1% over 90 days further stoked demand, as investors bet on profitability in Q2.

Auto Parts Sector Mixed as HSAI Outpaces Peers
The Auto Parts sector (S&P 80000000000000000000000000000000) remains fragmented, with HSAI’s 68.7% YTD gain starkly outperforming the sector’s -8.9% average. Luminar Technologies (LAZR) fell 5.08% intraday, while Innoviz (INVZ) rose 10.78%, reflecting divergent investor sentiment. HSAI’s rally underscores its unique positioning in lidar adoption for both automotive and robotics, contrasting with peers focused on traditional auto parts. The sector’s exposure to deferred maintenance and EV transition risks further widens HSAI’s relative appeal.

Options and ETF Plays for HSAI’s Volatile Trajectory
• MACD: 0.498 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.204, Histogram: 0.294 (positive divergence)
• RSI: 61.17 (neutral to overbought)
• Bollinger Bands: $23.95 (upper), $21.29 (middle), $18.63 (lower)
• 200-day MA: $15.85 (well above)

HSAI’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, with key support at $21.29 and resistance at $23.95. The 200-day MA ($15.85) remains a distant floor, while RSI near 61 hints at potential overbought conditions. For options, focus on near-term 25-strike calls and puts with high leverage and liquidity.

Top Option 1: HSAI20250919C25
• Strike: $25, Expiration: 2025-09-19, IV: 81.40% (high volatility)
• Delta: 0.583 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.0495 (rapid time decay), Gamma: 0.0601 (strong price sensitivity)
• Turnover: 164,237 shares (high liquidity)
• Leverage Ratio: 8.98% (moderate)
This call option offers a 31.63% price change potential if HSAI holds above $25. A 5% upside to $27.12 would yield a payoff of $2.12 per contract, aligning with its gamma-driven responsiveness to price swings.

Top Option 2: HSAI20251017C25
• Strike: $25, Expiration: 2025-10-17, IV: 76.29% (moderate)
• Delta: 0.593 (moderate), Theta: -0.0324 (moderate decay), Gamma: 0.0478 (solid sensitivity)
• Turnover: 68,911 shares (liquid)
• Leverage Ratio: 7.26% (moderate)
This October-dated call balances time decay with liquidity, ideal for a mid-term hold. A 5% upside would generate a $2.12 payoff, leveraging its 76.29% IV for volatility-driven gains.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider HSAI20250919C25 for a short-term pop above $25.50, while HSAI20251017C25 suits a measured hold into October.

Backtest Hesai Stock Performance
The backtest of the Impact of HSAI increasing by 11% intraday shows a positive short-to-medium-term performance. The 3-Day win rate is 50%, the 10-Day win rate is 49.3%, and the 30-Day win rate is 54.93%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of such a surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 17.84%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that while there is some volatility, significant gains can be realized if the momentum is sustained.

HSAI’s Rally Gains Legs – Position for a Breakout or Reversal
HSAI’s 10.76% intraday surge, fueled by Toyota’s endorsement and Q1 outperformance, signals a pivotal moment. While the 52-week high of $27.77 is a psychological barrier, the stock’s 42% gross margin and 33% market share in automotive lidar suggest durability. Watch for a close above $25.50 to confirm the breakout, with the 200-day MA ($15.85) as a critical support. Sector leader Luminar (LAZR) fell 5.08% today, highlighting HSAI’s relative strength. Investors should prioritize the 25-strike calls for a volatility-driven play, but remain cautious on overbought RSI levels. Act now: Buy HSAI20250919C25 to capitalize on the near-term momentum.