Hesai (HSAI) Surges 10.14% on Hong Kong Listing Filing and Technical Breakout – Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Hesai (HSAI) rockets 10.14% to $25.75, piercing its 52-week high of $27.94
• Regulatory filing for Hong Kong dual listing sparks investor optimism
• Options frenzy: 2025-09-19 $25 call options trade at 108.33% price change ratio
• Sector peers struggle as Intel (INTC) drags down semiconductor indices

Hesai’s intraday rally defies a weak semiconductor sector, driven by a regulatory filing for a Hong Kong listing and technical indicators suggesting a potential breakout. The stock’s 10.14% surge to $25.75—its highest since 2023—has ignited a surge in options activity, with volatility metrics spiking. Traders are now dissecting whether this is a short-term breakout or a sign of deeper institutional positioning.

Hong Kong Listing Filing Fuels Short-Term Optimism
Hesai’s 10.14% intraday surge is directly tied to its announcement of a regulatory filing for a dual primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The company received a notice of filing from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), signaling progress in its strategic expansion plans. While the completion of the offering remains contingent on approvals and market conditions, the news has ignited speculative buying. Additionally, technical indicators such as a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern and a MACD crossover above the signal line (0.847 vs. 0.819) suggest short-term momentum traders are capitalizing on the stock’s 637% rebound from its 52-week low of $3.56.

Semiconductor Sector Splits as Intel Drags Down
While Hesai surges, the broader semiconductor sector remains under pressure. Intel (INTC), the sector’s bellwether, is down 1.34% on concerns over AI chip delays. This divergence highlights Hesai’s unique positioning: its LiDAR technology for autonomous vehicles remains insulated from general semiconductor cyclicality. However, sustained outperformance will require broader sector rotation, which currently appears unlikely given INTC’s drag.

High-Volatility Playbook: ETFs and Options for the HSAI Breakout
• 200-day average: $16.55 (well below current price)
• RSI: 61.1 (neutral to bullish)
• MACD: 0.847 (bullish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: $25.75 at 94% of upper band

Hesai’s technicals suggest a continuation of its 10.14% surge, with key resistance at $27.09 (upper Bollinger Band) and support at $20.78 (30D support). The HSAI20250919C25 and HSAI20251017C22.5 options are top picks:

• HSAI20250919C25
- IV: 78.79% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.597 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.063 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0728 (high sensitivity to price swings)Turnover: $138,323 (liquid)Leverage: 10.29% (moderate)Payoff at 5% up: $1.28 per share (25.75 → 27.00)Why: High gamma and IV make it ideal for a short-term breakout.

• HSAI20251017C22.5IV: 78.12% (high volatility)Delta: 0.732 (high sensitivity)Theta: -0.035 (moderate decay)Gamma: 0.043 (responsive to price moves)Turnover: $82,514 (liquid)Leverage: 5.33% (low)Payoff at 5% up: $2.87 per share (25.75 → 27.00)Why: High delta and leverage amplify gains if the rally extends past $27.

Action: Aggressive bulls should target HSAI20250919C25 for a 5-day breakout play. Conservative traders may use HSAI20251017C22.5 as a longer-dated hedge.

Backtest Hesai Stock Performance
The backtest of HSAI's performance after a 10% intraday surge shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains, with win rates and returns increasing across 3, 10, and 30 days. This indicates the strategy's effectiveness in capturing short-term price appreciation, making it a potentially profitable approach for traders looking to leverage intraday movements..

Breakout or False Dawn? Act Now on HSAI’s $27.09 Hurdle
Hesai’s 10.14% surge has validated key technical levels, but sustainability hinges on clearing $27.09 (upper Bollinger Band). A break above this level would confirm the long-term bullish trend, while a pullback to $20.78 could reignite bearish sentiment. With the semiconductor sector underperforming—led by Intel’s 1.34% decline—investors should monitor HSAI’s ability to hold above $25.75. Act now: Buy HSAI20250919C25 if $27.09 is breached within 48 hours; otherwise, tighten stops at $24.03. Sector leader Analog Devices (ADI), up 1.18%, offers a benchmark for broader tech sentiment.