Hertz Global (HTZ) Surges 11.7% on Bullish Pivot Signal and Volatile Options Activity – What’s Next?

Summary
• Hertz Global (HTZ) rockets 11.7% intraday to $5.755, breaking above 52-week high of $9.39
• Analysts upgrade HTZ to 'Hold/Accumulate' after Friday’s 1.78% rebound
• Options chain sees 137x volume in 5.5-strike call ahead of 12/26 expiry

HTZ’s explosive move on Monday reflects a confluence of technical catalysts and shifting sentiment. The stock’s 11.7% surge—its largest intraday gain in over a year—has ignited options activity, with leveraged calls and puts trading at extreme implied volatility levels. With the rental car sector showing mixed momentum, investors are now parsing whether this breakout is a short-term rally or a structural reversal.

Pivot Bottom Breakout and MACD Buy Signal Drive Hertz’s Rally
HTZ’s 11.7% surge stems from a confirmed breakout above a key pivot bottom established on November 20, 2025, which had already driven a 6.19% rally. The stock’s 3-month MACD crossover into positive territory—coupled with rising volume—has triggered algorithmic buying. Short-term momentum is further fueled by a 5.89% projected daily range (based on 14-day ATR) and a favorable risk/reward profile near the $5.13 support level. However, conflicting signals persist: while the short-term MA is bullish, the long-term MA remains bearish, creating a tug-of-war between near-term optimism and broader bearish sentiment.

Rental Car Sector Mixed as Avis Gains 0.43%
The broader rental car sector shows divergent momentum. Avis Budget Group (CAR), HTZ’s primary peer, trades up 0.43% on the day, reflecting modest sector-wide optimism. However, HTZ’s 11.7% move far outpaces CAR’s performance, suggesting Hertz-specific catalysts—such as its pivot bottom breakout and aggressive options positioning—are driving the rally. With U.S. car rental revenue projected at $40.6 billion in 2025, sector fundamentals remain stable, but HTZ’s volatility highlights its speculative nature compared to more established peers.

Options Playbook: Leveraged Calls and Short-Term Volatility Plays
• 200-day MA: $5.865 (above) | RSI: 55.56 (neutral) | Bollinger Bands: $4.91–$5.38 (bullish squeeze)
• MACD: -0.108 (bullish crossover) | Histogram: 0.0117 (positive divergence)

HTZ’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish setup, with key resistance at $5.44 (long-term MA) and support at $5.10 (short-term MA). The stock’s 5.89% projected daily range and 3.95% turnover rate indicate high liquidity, making it ideal for options plays. While no leveraged ETFs are available, the options chain offers high-leverage opportunities. Two top picks:

• HTZ20251226C5.5 (Call, $5.5 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 76.45% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 15.61% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.7245 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.04899 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.6463 (high price sensitivity)
- Turnover: $45,161 (liquid)
This call benefits from HTZ’s current momentum and high gamma, amplifying gains if the stock breaks above $5.5. A 5% upside to $6.04 would yield a 125% payoff (max(0, 6.04-5.5) = $0.54).

• HTZ20260102C6 (Call, $6 strike, 1/2 expiry):
- IV: 79.35% (elevated)
- Leverage: 24.06% (aggressive)
- Delta: 0.4269 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.02129 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.4721 (high responsiveness)
- Turnover: $114,800 (high liquidity)
This contract offers a balance of leverage and time decay, ideal for a mid-term breakout. A 5% move to $6.04 would generate a 40% payoff (max(0, 6.04-6) = $0.04).

Aggressive bulls should target HTZ20251226C5.5 into a break above $5.5, while longer-term players may build positions in HTZ20260102C6 ahead of the 1/2 expiry.

Backtest Hertz Global Stock Performance
The backtest of HTZ's performance following a 12% intraday surge from 2022 to the present reveals a significant underperformance. The strategy's CAGR is -20.59%, with a total return of -59.43% and an excess return of -105.84%. The strategy has a high volatility of 47.46% and a maximum drawdown of 0.00%, indicating a risky profile with substantial losses.

Hertz’s Volatility Intensifies – Position for Breakouts or Breakdowns
HTZ’s 11.7% surge reflects a critical juncture between short-term bullish momentum and long-term bearish structure. With the stock trading near its 52-week high and options volatility spiking, investors must decide whether to chase the breakout or hedge against a potential reversal. The $5.13 support level remains pivotal—if breached, it could trigger a 5.9% stop-loss. Conversely, a close above $5.44 (long-term MA) would validate the bullish case. Meanwhile, Avis Budget Group (CAR) gaining 0.43% suggests sector-wide optimism, but HTZ’s speculative nature demands tighter risk management. Watch for $5.13 support or a $5.44 breakout to dictate next steps.