Hertz Global Outlook: Technical Weakness and Mixed Market Signals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Hertz Global (HTZ.O) is showing technical weakness with a score of 3.22 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10), suggesting investors should avoid the stock for now.

News Highlights

• On May 30, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a plan to double steel import tariffs to 50%, which could affect industrial companies like Hertz. While Hertz is not a direct steel producer, a stronger domestic industrial sector might indirectly benefit rental and fleet management services.
• On May 31, Trump fast-tracked an Utah uranium mine, signaling a possible revival in the sector. Uranium demand could rise in the long term if nuclear energy gains traction, but the market remains dependent on higher prices for meaningful action.
• Discovery and other companies are navigating trade policy uncertainty, including potential impacts from tariffs and supply chain disruptions. These macro risks could affect Hertz if its business operations expand into logistics or international markets.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Recent analyst coverage for Hertz Global is sparse, but the simple average rating is 3.00, and the performance-weighted average is 2.08, both signaling modest neutrality in expectations. The ratings are not tightly clustered—there are differences in opinion among analysts.

Analysts from Morgan Stanley issued a Neutral rating on May 8, with a strong historical performance record (100% win rate on one previous call). However, the current price trend is up by 2.70%, which is not aligned with the weighted expectations that suggest caution.

Key Fundamental Factors

• Days sales outstanding: 50.34 days — this indicates the company takes about a month to collect on its credit sales. The model score is 0 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10).
• Current assets turnover ratio: 1.91 — this means Hertz turns over its current assets about once every six months. The score is 0 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10).
• ROE (diluted): -38.79% — Hertz is losing money on equity, and the model scores this factor at 0 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10).
• ROA (rate of return on total assets): 1.30% — a low return on assets, with a model score of 0 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10).
• Non-current assets / Total assets: 84.61% — the company is holding a large portion of its assets in long-term investments or fixed assets. The model score is 2 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10).
• Asset-MV (market value of assets): -0.44 — the company’s assets are trading below market value. The model score is 0 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10).

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is moving out of Hertz Global. The fund-flow score is 7.68 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10), which might seem high, but the overall trend is negative across all major categories. Here’s the breakdown:

• Extra-large investors: -51.83% outflow
• Large investors: -51.13% outflow
• Medium investors: -51.13% outflow
• Block investors: -51.69% outflow

Interestingly, small investors are still buying in with a 50.12% inflow, but that is unlikely to offset the losses from larger players. The mismatch between retail and institutional flows is a warning sign for near-term momentum.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, Hertz is showing weakness with only 0 bullish indicators and 2 bearish signs. The internal technical score is 3.22 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10), and the score evaluation says “The technical side is weak, and it is suggested to avoid it.”

Indicator Details

• WR Oversold: Score 2.83 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10) — typically a bullish sign, but with a 44.44% win rate and a -0.95% average return, the signal is underperforming.
• Long Upper Shadow: Score 1.3 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10) — indicates indecision in the market with a 41.82% win rate and -0.95% average return.
• Bearish Engulfing: Score 5.54 (internal diagnostic score, 0-10) — a strong bearish reversal pattern with a 55.56% win rate and 0.81% average return.

Recent technical signals were observed on:

• December 10: Long Upper Shadow
• December 11: Bearish Engulfing
• December 16 and 17: WR Oversold twice

Bearish Engulfing stands out as the most bearish pattern, and its repeated appearance in early December raises concerns about a potential downward trend.

Conclusion

Hertz Global is facing multiple headwinds—weak fundamentals, divergent analyst views, and negative technical signals. While small investors are still showing some interest, large institutional money is clearly stepping away.

Actionable takeaway:Consider waiting for a pull-back before any new position, and watch for a potential earnings update in the near term for more clarity on Hertz’s operational performance. For now, the stock is not a compelling buy with such mixed and bearish signals.