Hertz Global (HTZ) Surges 12.67% on Bullish Commentary and Sector Optimism: What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• Hertz Global (HTZ) surges 12.67% intraday to $5.8025, breaking above its 52-week high of $9.39
• Bill Ackman’s bullish remarks and Q4 softness warnings from Hertz executives spark market debate
• Turnover jumps to 7.66 million shares, with RSI at 55.56 and MACD crossing into positive territory

Hertz Global (HTZ) is experiencing a dramatic intraday rally, surging 12.67% to $5.8025 as of 4:47 PM ET. The stock’s sharp move follows Bill Ackman’s public bullish stance and a Hertz executive’s cautionary note on Q4 demand. With turnover hitting 7.66 million shares and the RSI inching toward overbought territory, traders are scrambling to decipher whether this is a short-term rebound or a structural shift in sentiment.

Bill Ackman’s Bullish Bet and Q4 Cautionary Notes Drive Volatility
Hertz’s explosive 12.67% gain is fueled by a mix of bullish commentary from Bill Ackman, who reiterated his confidence in the company’s long-term recovery, and a Hertz executive’s warning about Q4 seasonal softness. Ackman’s public endorsement, combined with the stock’s sharp rebound from its 52-week low of $3.255, has reignited speculative interest. Meanwhile, the executive’s remarks about Q4 demand pressures have created a tug-of-war between short-term bearish concerns and long-term optimism about the rental car sector’s resilience. The stock’s intraday high of $5.83 suggests a potential breakout from its recent consolidation phase.

Rental Car Sector Gains Momentum as Hertz Leads Rally
The broader rental car sector is showing signs of strength, with U.S. car rental revenue projected to hit $40.6 billion in 2025, driven by increased fleet sizes and stable demand. Hertz’s 12.67% surge outpaces Avis Budget Group (CAR), which rose 1.08% on the day. The sector’s optimism is underpinned by improved fleet utilization and a shift toward premium vehicle offerings, as seen in SIXT’s recent U.S. airport expansions. Hertz’s aggressive pricing strategy and Ackman’s backing position it as a key beneficiary of this sector-wide momentum.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on Hertz’s Volatility and Sector Tailwinds
• 200-day MA: $5.865 (above current price) • RSI: 55.56 (neutral to overbought) • MACD: -0.108 (crossing into positive) • Bollinger Bands: $4.91–$5.38 (current price above upper band)

Hertz’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias, with the 200-day MA acting as a critical support level. The RSI’s approach to overbought territory and the MACD’s positive crossover indicate momentum is building. Traders should monitor the $5.83 intraday high as a potential breakout threshold. While no leveraged ETFs are available, the options chain offers high-leverage opportunities. Two top options stand out:

• HTZ20251226C5.5 (Call, $5.5 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 79.39% (elevated volatility)
- Delta: 0.701 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Theta: -0.0507 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.5925 (strong gamma for directional bets)
- Turnover: 33,517 (high liquidity)
- Leverage Ratio: 14.79% (moderate leverage)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $0.315 (max(0, 5.80251.05 - 5.5))
- Why it stands out: High IV and gamma make this ideal for a short-term bullish breakout.

• HTZ20260102C6 (Call, $6 strike, 1/2 expiry):
- IV: 87.18% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.4366 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0228 (slower decay)
- Gamma: 0.4319 (strong gamma for mid-term moves)
- Turnover: 47,641 (high liquidity)
- Leverage Ratio: 21.37% (attractive leverage)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $0.215 (max(0, 5.80251.05 - 6))
- Why it stands out: Balances leverage and time decay for a mid-term rally.

Aggressive bulls should consider HTZ20251226C5.5 into a breakout above $5.83.

Backtest Hertz Global Stock Performance
The backtest of HTZ's performance following a 13% intraday surge from 2022 to the present reveals a significant underperformance. The strategy yielded a return of -77.25%, lagging the benchmark by 123.66%. With a maximum drawdown of 0.00% and a Sharpe ratio of -0.40, the strategy demonstrated a high level of risk and substantial volatility, highlighting the challenges of such a volatile approach.

Hertz’s Rally Gains Legs: Watch for $5.83 Breakout and Sector Synergy
Hertz’s 12.67% surge reflects a confluence of bullish commentary, sector strength, and technical momentum. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high and the options market’s elevated IV suggest a high-stakes environment. Traders should focus on the $5.83 intraday high as a breakout threshold and the 200-day MA at $5.865 as a critical support level. Avis Budget Group (CAR)’s 1.08% gain underscores the sector’s broader optimism. Watch for a sustained close above $5.83 to confirm a bullish reversal.