Hertz Global (HTZ) Surges 8.34% on Earnings Beat and Strategic Turnaround Gains

Summary
• Hertz Global (HTZ) surges 8.34% intraday to $6.035, rebounding from a 52-week low of $2.47
• Q2 2025 results show adjusted EBITDA turns positive for first time in nearly two years
• 200-day moving average at $5.03 acts as critical support level
• Options volatility spikes with 20 contracts trading above 70% implied volatility

Hertz Global’s stock has ignited a dramatic 8.34% intraday rally, driven by a surprise earnings beat and strategic progress in fleet management. The surge comes amid a volatile automotive retail sector grappling with tariff uncertainties and cost pressures. With the stock trading near its 52-week low, the move reflects investor optimism about Hertz’s turnaround strategy, even as broader industry headwinds persist.

Earnings Beat and Fleet Optimization Fuel Hertz’s Rally
Hertz’s Q2 2025 results catalyzed the surge, with adjusted EBITDA turning positive at $1 million—a stark contrast to a $460 million loss in Q2 2024. The company’s disciplined cost controls, including a 3% year-over-year decline in direct operating expenses and a 16% improvement in depreciation per unit (DPU) to $251, signaled operational efficiency. Vehicle utilization rose to 83%, supported by a younger fleet, while liquidity of $1.45 billion underscored financial flexibility. Despite revenue missing estimates by $3 million, the earnings beat and strategic execution—such as securing pre-tariff pricing for 2025 fleets—sparked investor confidence.

Automotive Retail Sector Volatile Amid Tariff Uncertainty
The automotive retail sector remains under pressure from Trump-era tariffs and rising input costs, as highlighted by Stellantis’ UAW profit-sharing risks and Toyota’s $10 billion tariff bill. Hertz’s 8.34% intraday gain outperformed sector peers like Avis Budget Group (CAR), which fell 0.84%. While Hertz’s turnaround strategy—focusing on fleet optimization and cost discipline—has shown traction, sector-wide challenges, including EV market shifts and inventory constraints, suggest mixed momentum for the near term.

Options Playbook: Leveraging High-Volatility Contracts for Hertz's Volatile Move
• RSI: 18.48 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.33 (bearish), Signal: -0.09, Histogram: -0.24
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $8.76, Middle $7.10, Lower $5.43
• 200D MA: $5.03 (below current price)

Hertz’s technicals suggest a short-term oversold condition, with price trading near the lower Bollinger Band. The 200-day moving average at $5.03 provides a critical support level. Aggressive bulls may consider HTZ20250815C6.5 (call) for a potential bounce above $6.50, while bears could short HTZ20250815P6.5 (put) if the stock fails to hold $6.00. The 52-week low at $2.47 remains a long-term floor.

Top Options Picks:
• HTZ20250815C6.5 (Call):
- Strike: $6.50, Expiry: 2025-08-15
- IV: 98.69% (high volatility), Delta: 0.346 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.028 (rapid time decay), Gamma: 0.394 (high sensitivity to price swings), Turnover: 8,056
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($6.58), max profit = $0.08 per share
- This contract offers high leverage (30.18%) and liquidity, ideal for a short-term bullish play on Hertz’s earnings-driven momentum.
• HTZ20250815P6.5 (Put):
- Strike: $6.50, Expiry: 2025-08-15
- IV: 115.40% (extreme volatility), Delta: -0.55 (strong bearish bias), Theta: -0.006 (slow time decay), Gamma: 0.35 (moderate sensitivity), Turnover: 3,520
- Payoff: At 5% downside ($5.96), max profit = $0.54 per share
- This put offers a high IV premium and strong delta for a bearish bet if the stock retests $6.00. However, its high IV may erode value if the rally continues.

If $6.50 breaks, HTZ20250815C6.5 offers upside potential. Aggressive bulls may consider HTZ20250815C6.5 into a bounce above $6.50.

Backtest Hertz Global Stock Performance
The backtest of HTZ's performance after an intraday increase of 8% shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a positive surge, it failed to maintain the momentum over the short and medium term. The 3-day win rate was 44.61%, the 10-day win rate was 48.77%, and the 30-day win rate was 43.63%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the event. However, the average returns over these periods were negative, with a 3-day return of -0.35%, a 10-day return of -0.05%, and a 30-day return of -1.42%. The maximum return during the backtest was only 0.10%, which occurred on the second day after the event, suggesting that the stock lacked sustained upward momentum.

Hertz’s Turnaround Gains Traction—Position for a Volatile Ride
Hertz’s Q2 results validate its strategic shift toward fleet optimization and cost discipline, but macroeconomic headwinds and sector volatility remain. The stock’s 8.34% intraday surge suggests short-term momentum, though technical indicators like the oversold RSI and bearish MACD hint at potential pullbacks. Investors should monitor the 200-day MA at $5.03 and key resistance at $6.50. For context, sector leader Avis Budget Group (CAR) fell 0.84%, underscoring Hertz’s outperformance. Aggressive bulls may consider HTZ20250815C6.5 into a bounce above $6.50, while bears could short HTZ20250815P6.5 if the stock fails to hold $6.00. Position sizing and stop-loss placement are critical in this high-volatility environment.