Hershey Stock Surges 5.96% to $175.84 Amid Strong Technical Breakout

The Hershey Company (HSY) gained 5.96% to close at $175.84 on July 1, 2025, with substantial trading volume of 2.53 million shares. The session's bullish momentum established $165.93 as immediate support and tested resistance at $178.06. This analysis assesses key technical dynamics following the sharp rally.
Candlestick Theory
The July 1 candle exhibits decisive bullish reversal characteristics, with a long real body and minimal upper wick indicating sustained buying pressure into the close. This pattern follows a three-week consolidation phase between $164.80 and $173.83, establishing $164.80-$165.93 as critical support. Resistance is now evident at $178.06 (July 1 high) and $180.00 psychologically. A confirmed breakout above $180 would target intermediate resistance at $186.06, while failure to hold $165 could expose the $161.23 support zone.
Moving Average Theory
The price currently trades above all key moving averages: the 50-day SMA ($166.30), 100-day SMA ($162.40), and 200-day SMA ($169.95), confirming bullish positioning. However, the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, reflecting unresolved long-term bearish structure despite recent strength. The bullish crossover between the 50-day and 100-day SMAs signals improving intermediate momentum. Sustainability above the 200-day SMA will be critical for trend confirmation.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows sustained bullish momentum with the histogram in positive territory (recent value: +0.7), supported by the MACD line (2.5) above the signal line (1.8). The KDJ indicator registers an overbought reading of 83.26, driven by the sharp July 1 advance. While MACD's bullish divergence suggests continuity, KDJ's overbought condition flags potential near-term exhaustion. This divergence advises caution against aggressive entries at current levels.
Bollinger Bands
Price closed above the upper Bollinger Band ($175.50), calculated using a 20-day SMA ($168.50) and 2 standard deviations (3.5). This breach indicates an overextended short-term move typically followed by mean reversion. Band expansion highlights rising volatility, suggesting potential consolidation. Sustained trade above $175.50 could signal exceptional bullish strength, while regression toward $168.50 appears probable near term.
Volume-Price Relationship
The July 1 surge occurred on volume 31% above the 20-day average, validating buyer conviction. Recent up days have consistently attracted higher volume than down days, confirming accumulation. Volume profiles show resistance breaks on amplified turnover (e.g., June 9: 2.74M shares), supporting constructive technical structure. Declining volume on pullbacks indicates limited selling pressure.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reads 61.51, in neutral territory and showing moderate upward momentum. While below overbought thresholds, its 25-point increase during June reflects accelerating buying interest. This reading leaves room for potential upside before overbought caution near 70, though confluence with other oscillators (e.g., KDJ's 83) merits vigilance for divergence signals.
Fibonacci Retracement
Retracement analysis from the December 2024 high ($208.03) to February 2025 low ($150.51) shows the price recently cleared the 38.2% level ($172.48) and now approaches the critical 50% threshold at $179.27. This zone combines with psychological resistance at $180 and the July 1 intraday high ($178.06) to form a high-confluence resistance cluster. Successful clearance of $179-$180 would target the 61.8% retracement at $186.06.
Multiple indicators show confluence around the $172-$175 zone (38.2% Fibonacci, 200-day SMA, volume support), creating a technical floor. Divergence exists between trend-confirming indicators (MACD, volume) and overbought oscillators (KDJ, Bollinger excursion). The July 1 breakout requires follow-through above $180 to confirm trend continuation, while failure to hold $172-$175 may trigger mean reversion toward primary moving averages.