Hershey Stock Surges 3.23% to $195.13 Amid Technical Breakout and 5.99% Four-Day Rally

Hershey (HSY) rose 3.23% to $195.13, marking its fourth consecutive daily gain and a 5.99% advance over this period. This recent strength occurred near a critical technical juncture, as evidenced by the following multifaceted analysis of the approximately one-year dataset.
Candlestick Theory
The current four-day rally features consecutively higher highs and lows, culminating in a decisive breakout candle on October 3rd that eclipsed the September 16th swing high of $195.35. This bullish engulfing pattern suggests conviction, establishing $195.35 as immediate resistance. Support emerges near $183.27 (September 29th low), reinforced by the psychological $180 level. The rejection of prices below $185 twice in late September formed a double bottom, adding structural significance to this zone.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (approximately $185.60), 100-day SMA (~$180.30), and 200-day SMA (~$172.80) maintain ascending slopes, confirming the primary uptrend. Current price action trades above all three averages, demonstrating robust bullish alignment. Notably, the 50-day average crossed above both longer-term averages in late August, triggering a "golden cross" that reinforced the bullish bias. This hierarchy suggests layered support near $185.50 and $180.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD exhibits a bullish trajectory with its histogram accelerating above the signal line since September 30th, corroborating the breakout momentum. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator reflects overbought conditions (K-value: >90), implying near-term exhaustion risk. However, no bearish divergence is evident—both indicators align directionally with the price advance. This confluence suggests continued upward potential despite overextended short-term readings.
Bollinger Bands
October 3rd’s surge propelled prices above the upper Bollinger Band (~$193.50), representing a volatility expansion following the band’s contraction in late September. Such breakouts often precede directional accelerations, though closes outside the bands typically invite mean-reversion. The bandwidth expansion confirms renewed volatility, with the middle band (20-day SMA ~$188) now acting as immediate support.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 59% on October 3rd versus the prior session, validating the breakout with the highest single-day turnover since September 19th. The rally’s progression on ascending volume—particularly the 1.68M shares traded on the breakout day—confirms buyer conviction. This contrasts with the late-September consolidation period, where lower volume during pullbacks indicated limited distribution.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI now measures approximately 78, entering overbought territory (>70) for the first time since mid-September. While this warns of potential consolidation, the lack of bearish divergence (RSI made new highs alongside price) tempers immediate reversal concerns. This reading remains less extreme than the mid-July peak (RSI: 85), allowing room for continuation if underlying momentum persists.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the August 21st low ($151.29) and the October 3rd high ($195.34) reveals key thresholds. The recent breakout surpassed the 78.6% retracement level ($190.50), signaling strength. Projected extensions suggest $201.50 (127.2%) as the next resistance. Pullbacks may find support near the 61.8% level ($178.60), aligning with the 100-day SMA and volume-supported zone.
Concluding Observations
Multiple indicators converge in signaling bullish dominance: moving average alignment, MACD confirmation, and volume-backed candlestick breakouts provide high-probability evidence of continuation strength. Overbought readings (RSI, KDJ) and Bollinger Band penetration warrant caution for near-term consolidation, but the absence of bearish divergences suggests such pauses may represent accumulation opportunities rather than reversal signals. The Fibonacci projection toward $201.50 appears achievable provided the price maintains above the $190 breakout confluence zone.