Hershey Stock Surges 3.19% To $176.75 On Bullish Golden Cross And Volume Spike

Candlestick Theory
The Hershey's recent price action shows a strong bullish momentum, culminating in a robust 3.19% gain on July 21, 2025, marking the fourth consecutive up-day. This sequence forms a bullish Three White Soldiers pattern near the $164 level (July 15–17), supported by a long green candle on July 17 (open: $165.62, close: $171.23), indicating conviction. Significant resistance emerges near $181.28 (July 21 high), aligning with the December 2024 peak of $184.43. Support is established at $170.83 (July 18 low), reinforced by the June 2025 consolidation zone ($155–$163).
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (currently ~$172) recently crossed above the 100-day (~$168) and 200-day MAs (~$165), forming a bullish "golden cross." Price consolidation above all three MAs between July 7–14 resolved upward, confirming the uptrend’s strength. The current price ($176.75) holding above the 50-day MA suggests sustained short-term momentum, while the ascending 200-day MA underscores the long-term bullish structure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish crossover emerging on July 17, with the histogram expanding positively. KDJ (default settings) registers %K (85) and %D (78) in overbought territory (>80), signaling potential near-term exhaustion. While both oscillators agree on current momentum, KDJ’s overbought condition diverges slightly from MACD’s moderate stance. This may suggest a pullback is probable but not imminent, as MACD continues strengthening.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility contracted sharply in early July (bands narrowing to ~$5 width), preceding the July 17 breakout above the upper band ($171.70). The price remains near the upper band ($177–182 range), indicating persistent upward pressure. A band expansion concurrent with rising volume validates the breakout. A close below $174 (mid-band) would signal short-term cooling.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 39% to 3.33 million shares on July 21 versus the prior session, confirming bullish conviction. The four-day rally averaged 2.26 million shares—above the 20-day average (~1.9 million)—supporting sustainability. Notably, the March 2025 decline saw higher volume (e.g., 6.25 million shares on December 11), suggesting distribution; current volume profiles lack such distribution signals.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI sits at 68, nearing overbought territory but with room for extension. Averages: 4-day gain = 2.97%, loss = 0.81%. Formula application: RSI = [2.97 / (2.97 + 0.81)] × 100 ≈ 78.5 (indicative calculation; exact requires full dataset). While not yet overbought (>70), proximity warrants vigilance for bearish divergence. Historical instances (e.g., March 2025 peak at RSI 76) show reversals occurred only after sustained overbought readings.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of $155.90 (May 28, 2025) and high of $208.03 (December 9, 2024):
- 50% level: $181.96
- 61.8% level: $188.23
Price stalled near the 38.2% retracement ($174.50) in June 2025 before breaking out. The current rally faces confluence resistance at $181.96 (50% Fib + July 21 high). A decisive close above this level may target $188.23, while failure could retest support at $174.50.
Confluence & Divergences
Confluence exists at $181–182 (resistance from candlestick high, 50% Fib, and December 2024 peak), making this a critical breakout zone. Divergence emerges between KDJ’s overbought signal and RSI’s neutral stance, implying potential near-term consolidation without immediate reversal risk. Volume-MA alignment and MACD strength support bullish continuity, though Bollinger Band proximity and Fib resistance advise caution at current levels. The Hershey’s technical posture remains constructive but entering a probabilistically challenging resistance area.