Hershey Stock Consolidates Near $185 As Key Resistance Holds At $186.90

Candlestick Theory
The Hershey (HSY) displays significant candlestick patterns over the past year. Recent sessions show consolidation near $185, with a gravestone doji forming on 2025-09-12 (high: $185.62, close: $185.01) signaling resistance at $186.90–187.75. The 2025-09-10 session recorded a high-volume bearish engulfing pattern (open: $187.36, close: $185.60), reinforcing this resistance zone. Key support emerges at $183.26, established by the 2025-08-11 reversal low after a 4.80% drop. The latest 0.30% gain on 2025-09-15 formed a small bullish candle within this range, suggesting indecision.
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Moving Average Theory
HSY maintains bullish long-term structure with the 200-day MA rising near $172.43 and the 100-day MA sloping upward at $174.85. However, the 50-day MA ($177.65) currently sits below the price ($185.56), reflecting recent consolidation pressure. The proximity of all three MAs below the current price may offer dynamic support. A sustained break below the 50-day MA could signal near-term bearish momentum, while holding above the 100/200-day MAs supports the broader uptrend.
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MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows the signal line hovering near zero, indicating equilibrium between bulls and bears. Histogram bars have stabilized after mid-August’s volatility, suggesting waning directional momentum. KDJ (9,3,3) oscillates neutrally (K: 46.8, D: 51.2, J: 38.0) with no extreme overbought/oversold readings. However, the KDJ’s recent dip below 40 in late August preceded price recovery, demonstrating its sensitivity to short-term reversals. Currently, both oscillators lack strong trend signals.
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Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-period) have contracted sharply since early August (width: $3.75 vs. $8.20 peak), reflecting declining volatility. Price action hugs the middle band ($182.50), typical of consolidation phases. The upper band at $186.20 aligns with candlestick resistance, while the lower band ($178.80) converges with the 100-day MA. A decisive close outside this tightening range may trigger a volatility expansion move.
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Volume-Price Relationship
Notable volume surges validate key price levels: the 2025-08-11 sell-off (-4.80%, volume: 3.19M) confirmed resistance near $185, while the 2025-09-08 rally (+1.11%, volume: 1.47M) supported the $184–188 range. Recent consolidation occurs on diminishing volume (9/15 volume: 939K vs. 1.34M on 9/10), suggesting reduced conviction. A breakout above $187.75 would require amplified volume for sustainability.
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Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-period RSI (54.81) reflects neutral momentum after recovering from August’s oversold low (29.50). Current readings show no divergence with price action. The absence of overbought (>70) conditions since June 2025 indicates limited bullish exhaustion risk. While RSI’s mid-zone positioning allows room for movement in either direction, it aligns with broader consolidation signals.
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Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the 2024-10-02 high ($194.64) and 2025-05-30 low ($160.31):
- The 61.8% retracement ($174.51) marked the July 2025 reversal point
- Recent pullbacks respect the 38.2% level ($181.48) as support
- The 23.6% retracement ($186.90) capped September rallies, converging with candlestick resistance
A break above $187.75 could target the 0% extension at $194.64, while failure at $183.26 may retest the 50% level ($177.47).
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Confluence & Divergence
Confluence Points:
1. Resistance: $186.90–187.75 (Candlestick highs + Bollinger upper band + Fibonacci 23.6%)
2. Support: $174.51–177.65 (Fib 61.8% + 100/50-day MAs)
Divergences:
- KDJ registered an oversold reading on 2025-08-28 while RSI remained above 30, creating a minor bullish divergence that resolved with September’s rebound.
- No significant MACD/price divergence observed in the past three months.
While HSY’s long-term trend remains supported by moving averages and Fibonacci levels, recent candlestick patterns and tightening Bollinger Bands imply consolidation near $185. Volume contraction suggests directional indecision, though the proximity to key resistance could heighten breakout/breakdown risks.