Hershey Rises 1.10 on Strong Institutional Buying and 26 Revenue Surge as Trading Volume Ranks 484th Amid Margin Pressures

On September 2, 2025, The Hershey Company (HSY) closed with a 1.10% gain, trading on a volume of $0.22 billion, ranking 484th in market activity. The stock’s performance reflects a mixed outlook following recent developments.

Institutional investors have shown increased confidence, with BNP Paribas Financial Markets boosting its stake by 10.8% in Q1 2025, now holding 0.15% of shares valued at $52.57 million. Other institutional investors, including Lido Advisors LLC and Aptus Capital Advisors LLC, also significantly increased their holdings, indicating a broader accumulation trend.

The company reported a 26% year-over-year revenue surge to $2.61 billion in its latest quarter, driven by strong demand for confectionery and snack products. However, rising commodity costs, higher advertising expenses, and margin compression led management to revise 2025 guidance, forecasting sales growth of at least 2% but a decline in adjusted earnings per share. This has sparked investor debate over the sustainability of profit margins amid elevated input costs.

Despite the earnings beat, insider selling has raised scrutiny. CEO Michele Buck sold 19,290 shares in July, reducing her ownership by 9.06%, while other executives and insiders collectively sold 86,127 shares valued at $15.76 million in the past 90 days. The company also announced a quarterly dividend of $1.37 per share, yielding 3.0%, to be paid on September 15.

Valuation analysis suggests HSY is trading near its estimated fair value of $184.64. However, analysts remain divided, with 14 out of 18 assigning a "Hold" rating and a consensus target of $170.83. Elevated cocoa prices and margin pressures could weigh on future performance, though institutional buying and a robust revenue growth trajectory provide some support.

Backtesting indicates a 90% probability of HSY trading between $196.88 and $222.30 over the next three months, with a projected 12.76% upside. However, short-term technical indicators show divergence in volume and price, suggesting caution for near-term volatility.