Hepsiburada’s Profitability Surge Masks Persistent Turbulence in Turkey’s E-Commerce Landscape

Hepsiburada, Turkey’s dominant e-commerce platform, has emerged from 2024 with a mix of triumphs and trials. The company reported 6.4% revenue growth in Q4 2024 to TRY 18.1 billion, driven by a strategic pivot toward its logistics and fintech arms, while navigating hyperinflation and consumer boycotts. Yet, its TRY 669 million net loss (a 28% improvement from the prior year) underscores the challenges of sustaining profitability in a volatile economy. Below is an analysis of the company’s path forward.

The Growth Engine: Marketplace, Logistics, and Fintech

Hepsiburada’s success hinges on three pillars: its shift to a marketplace model, its logistics arm HepsiJet, and its fintech division Hepsipay. Together, they are transforming the company from a traditional retailer into an ecosystem play.

1. Marketplace Dominance:
   The Marketplace GMV share rose to 69.8% of total GMV in 2024, up from 66.9% in 2023. This shift reduced inventory risk and amplified gross margins, as Marketplace revenue grew 12% to TRY 7.25 billion. The strategy also attracted third-party sellers, with external HepsiJet deliveries accounting for 34.6% of its volume—a sign of the logistics division’s standalone appeal.

2. Logistics as a Profit Lever:
   HepsiJet’s revenue surged 17.7% in Q4 and 50.4% annually, fueled by higher fees and off-platform demand. By delivering 72% of all platform parcels in 2024, HepsiJet has become a core competitive advantage, reducing reliance on external providers and locking in customer loyalty.

3. Fintech’s Explosive Growth:
   Hepsipay’s other revenue (including BNPL, loans, and advertising) skyrocketed 126.5% in Q4 and 111.8% for the year. Fintech now accounts for 6% of total revenue, with 3.3 million orders processed via its affordability solutions. This early-stage success hints at untapped potential in Turkey’s underpenetrated digital finance market.

Profitability Breakthroughs, but Debt Looms

The most striking result is Hepsiburada’s EBITDA surge: a 283.5% jump in Q4 to TRY 715 million, and 218.4% growth annually to TRY 2.07 billion. EBITDA margins improved to 1.2% of GMV in Q4 and 1.1% annually, up from 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Cost discipline—such as a 2.4 percentage-point rise in gross contribution margins—and inflation’s moderating effect (44.4% in 2024 vs. 64.8% in 2023) played key roles.

However, free cash flow declined 33.8% in 2024 to TRY 3.7 billion due to reinvestment in logistics and technology. Meanwhile, the net loss for the full year widened to TRY 1.6 billion, reflecting soaring financial expenses (32% higher) and lower foreign exchange gains. These figures suggest Hepsiburada is prioritizing long-term growth over short-term profitability—a risky bet in an economy where consumer spending remains fragile.

The Elephant in the Room: Macroeconomic Headwinds

Turkey’s economic struggles—44.4% inflation, political instability, and shopping boycotts in early 2025—have constrained consumer spending and marketing budgets. CEO Nilhan Onal Gökçetekin noted the “challenging start” to 2025, with reduced marketing spend and order volumes. This is a critical test: Can Hepsiburada’s ecosystem—Premium subscriptions (3.7 million members), HepsiJet dominance, and fintech—insulate it from broader economic shocks?

The Kaspi.kz Acquisition: A Lifeline or a Gamble?

The January 2025 acquisition of a 65.4% stake by Kaspi.kz, Kazakhstan’s leading e-commerce firm, marks a pivotal strategic shift. Kaspi brings expertise in cross-border logistics, fintech, and digital payments, which could help Hepsiburada expand regionally. However, integrating a foreign partner into Turkey’s politically charged business environment is no small feat. Investors will watch closely whether this partnership stabilizes Hepsiburada’s finances or introduces new complexities.

Conclusion: A Resilient Model, but Not Without Risk

Hepsiburada’s Q4 results reveal a company in transition: it is building a sustainable, ecosystem-driven business, but one still tethered to Turkey’s economic whims. The 12.1% GMV growth in 2024, EBITDA’s 218% surge, and the 69.8% Marketplace share are undeniably positive. Yet, the TRY 1.6 billion net loss and declining free cash flow highlight execution risks.

For investors, the calculus is clear: Hepsiburada’s logistics and fintech bets position it to capitalize on Turkey’s e-commerce boom, but its profitability hinges on stabilizing macro conditions and the success of the Kaspi partnership. The stock’s valuation—currently trading at 11.2x forward EV/EBITDA—suggests the market is pricing in these uncertainties.

The real question is whether Hepsiburada’s ecosystem can outpace the economic headwinds. If it can, this could be a generational investment. If not, the company’s aggressive reinvestment may leave it exposed. For now, the jury remains out—but the data shows a company fighting to turn its operational strengths into a winning formula.

In a market where 72% of parcels are controlled by HepsiJet and 3.3 million consumers are using its BNPL products, Hepsiburada has the tools to succeed. The next year will test whether this is enough.