HEMITRY Market Overview for 2025-10-05

• Price surged 8.8% in 15 hours before consolidating at 3.86.
• Volatility expanded sharply in early hours, with a 3.89 intraday peak.
• Volume surged past 1.4M at 15:15 ET, confirming a breakout.
• RSI entered overbought territory, hinting at potential short-term profit-taking.
• Fibonacci retracement shows 61.8% level at 3.79, a potential support.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05, HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) opened at 3.71, reached a high of 3.93, and closed at 3.86 after an extended trading day. Total traded volume was 49,430,577.5 TRL, with a notional turnover of 191.97 million TRL over the 24-hour window. The pair experienced a volatile 24-hour move, driven by multiple breakout attempts and consolidation phases.

Structure & Formations

HEMITRY displayed a strong bull trend during the overnight session, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, peaking at 3.93 before retracing. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at the 19:30 ET session, followed by a high-volume confirmation at 15:15 ET. A doji appeared at 02:45 ET, indicating indecision after a sharp move from 3.76 to 3.80. Key support levels include 3.82 (61.8% Fib), 3.76 (50% Fib), and 3.70 (38.2% Fib), with 3.93 as the nearest resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above the 20-period (3.81) and 50-period (3.83) moving averages, reinforcing a bullish bias. The daily 50-period MA sits at 3.77, and the 200-period at 3.70, indicating a strong upward trend in the broader time frame. The price is currently sitting 160 ticks above the 50-day MA, a significant signal for trend-following traders.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive at 07:00 ET and remained above the signal line throughout the day, confirming bullish momentum. The RSI climbed above 70 by 02:45 ET, indicating overbought conditions and a potential correction. However, the price continued higher without immediate reversal, suggesting strong buying pressure. A close below 3.82 could trigger a short-term RSI correction into the mid-60s.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the overnight hours, pushing the Bollinger Bands wide. At 15:15 ET, price traded near the upper band (3.88), confirming the breakout with high volume. The bands have since narrowed slightly, indicating a possible consolidation phase. Price remains within the upper half of the bands, suggesting that bulls are still in control, but a retest of the lower band at 3.80 could occur.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 1.4 million TRL at 15:15 ET, aligning with the price breaking above 3.88. This was the largest 15-minute volume spike of the day, confirming the breakout. However, volume dropped sharply in the following 15-minute intervals, indicating a potential exhaustion of the bullish momentum. Notional turnover remained elevated during the early morning and midday sessions, but diverged from price action after 10:00 ET, suggesting caution.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the overnight swing from 3.63 to 3.93, the 61.8% retracement level at 3.79 is currently acting as support. The 50% level at 3.76 is also in play, and a break below 3.72 (38.2%) could trigger a deeper correction. On a daily chart, the recent move from 3.65 to 3.93 suggests key resistance at 3.97 and 4.04, with 3.75 and 3.68 as critical support levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technicals, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a long bias on a breakout above the 3.88 level with a stop just below 3.82. This setup would aim to capture the continuation of the bullish trend following the high-volume move. A trailing stop at the 3.76 level (50% Fib) could manage downside risk while allowing for upside participation. This approach aligns with the observed bullish momentum, confirmed by the MACD and RSI divergence. A close below 3.76 would invalidate the strategy and suggest a possible bearish reversal. This setup could be backtested over the last 30 days to assess win rate, risk-reward ratio, and drawdown.