HEMI/Turkish Lira Rally Fails to Hold After Sharp AM Surge

Summary
• HEMI/Turkish Lira traded in a 0.4863–0.5609 range, with strong support near 0.4923 and resistance at 0.5371–0.5609.
• Volume surged during the 3–6 AM ET session, with a 12-hour peak in turnover.
• RSI hit overbought during the 3–5 AM rally, while momentum weakened afterward.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near 0.5047–0.5102, but failed to confirm on follow-through.
• Price remained within a 20-period Bollinger Band contraction for most of the session.

Price and Volume at a Glance

HEMI/Turkey Lira (HEMITRY) opened at 0.5089 on 2026-02-06 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.5609, a low of 0.4863, and closed at 0.5129 on 2026-02-07 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 38,275,781.49999999, with a notional turnover of 18,894,350.61605999.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed multiple consolidation patterns over the 24-hour period. A bullish engulfing pattern formed in the early morning (0.5047–0.5102), followed by a sharp rally to 0.5609, suggesting strong short-term demand. However, the move lacked follow-through, with price retreating below 0.5400 by midday. Key support levels emerged around 0.5002 and 0.4923, while resistance clustered at 0.5371 and 0.5609. A long lower shadow near 0.5129–0.5151 suggested some accumulation, though bearish pressure remained intact.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 5-minute chart, the price spent much of the session consolidating below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, suggesting a bearish bias. The 50-period MA acted as a temporary floor in the morning but failed to hold during the 5–6 AM ET sell-off. The 50-period MA currently sits near 0.5160, above the closing price, indicating a potential for further downside correction.

Momentum, as measured by MACD, turned bearish after the 4 AM ET peak. While the MACD line crossed above the signal line briefly during the morning rally, it failed to maintain bullish momentum and closed bearish. RSI showed overbought conditions during the 3–5 AM ET rally but quickly reversed into neutral territory, suggesting a lack of conviction in the upward move.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Band expansion occurred between 3–5 AM ET, reflecting heightened volatility during the rally to 0.5609. By midday, the bands had contracted, suggesting a period of consolidation. Price remained within the upper 1 SD of the 20-period band for much of the morning, but drifted toward the middle and lower bands after 9 AM ET. The recent contraction may indicate a potential for a breakout or breakdown in the near term.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 3–5 AM ET session, with a peak of 4.06 million units in the 3:30–4:00 AM ET hour. This coincided with the rally from 0.5378 to 0.5609, suggesting buying pressure during the move. However, turnover did not confirm the price action, as the volume failed to hold above average levels during the consolidation phase. Divergence between volume and price in the last 6 hours suggests weakening conviction in both directions.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.4863–0.5609 swing, the 0.5212–0.5266 area corresponds to the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels. Price has shown hesitation in this region and may test the 38.2% level at 0.5102–0.5129 next. A break below 0.5002 would target 0.4863 for a 61.8% extension, while a close above 0.5266 could bring the 0.5371 resistance into play again.

Forward Outlook

Looking ahead, the 24-hour period could see renewed testing of 0.5002 and 0.4923 for support or a rally back toward 0.5371 if short-covering intensifies. Traders should watch for a breakout from the 0.5129–0.5205 range for directional confirmation. Risk remains skewed to the downside in the near term, especially if volume fails to expand meaningfully during key price levels.