Hedera/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• HBARUSDT declined intraday but found support near $0.17046.
• Volatility picked up after midday ET, with a sharp selloff into early morning.
• RSI approached oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.

Hedera (HBAR) traded against Tether (USDT) on 2025-11-09 showed a bearish 24-hour close, opening at $0.17368 and closing at $0.17114, with a high of $0.1758 and a low of $0.16922. Total volume stood at 52,313,566.0 and turnover reached $8,935,182.00. The pair displayed a clear downward bias, with intraday volatility peaking during the early hours.

Structure and formations suggest a key support at $0.17046, which coincided with a sharp selloff into early morning hours. Price briefly found rejection at $0.1739–0.1750 before retesting lower levels. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at $0.1751–0.17421, reinforcing the bearish trend. No decisive bullish reversal patterns appeared, but a bullish harami may form if price stabilizes above $0.17114.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained below the price action, reflecting bearish momentum. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) would be more relevant for assessing longer-term trends. Price continued to trade beneath all these moving averages, indicating the dominant bearish bias.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped into the 30–32 range by early morning, signaling possible oversold conditions. The MACD line showed a bearish crossover, with the histogram contracting, indicating weakening bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff, showing increased volatility, and price traded near the lower band for much of the session, which could imply a potential rebound if buyers step in.

Volume increased significantly during the selloff into early morning, with a sharp drop in turnover after $0.17057. Notional turnover also spiked as price moved into the $0.1694–0.1698 range. The increase in volume with price declines suggests distribution, but a divergence in volume during the late morning could hint at short-term exhaustion.

Fibonacci retracements from the recent swing high of $0.1758 to the swing low of $0.16922 identified key levels. 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels sit around $0.1729 and $0.1743, respectively. A retest of these levels may offer short-term resistance. On the 15-minute chart, intra-swing retracements also suggest potential support near $0.1708–0.1712.

Over the next 24 hours, HBAR/USDT could test the $0.17046 support for a potential bounce or continue lower into $0.1685–0.1690 if bearish momentum gains traction. Investors should watch for a close above $0.1720 as a bearish trend reversal signal. Given the volatility and volume patterns, caution is advised around short-term price fluctuations.

Backtest Hypothesis

To backtest a potential HBARUSDT strategy using RSI, we need access to the correct price or RSI data for the pair. If the RSI for HBARUSDT is not accessible under the current ticker (HBARUSDT), it may be available under a different exchange-specific symbol, such as BINANCE:HBARUSDT or another venue like Kraken or Coinbase. Please confirm the exact symbol and exchange to proceed.

If daily RSI bars are sufficient for your needs, this simplifies the calculation and data requirements. Alternatively, if 4-hour or 1-hour data is preferred, let us know, as it will affect how signals are generated and the timing of entries and exits.

The strategy assumes a standard RSI approach: long when RSI ≤ 30 and short when RSI ≥ 70. If you prefer a more aggressive or conservative setting (e.g., 20/80), those adjustments can be made once confirmed. Using this framework, we can backtest the performance of the RSI-based strategy from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-09 and refine the parameters based on the resulting signals and risk-adjusted returns.