Hedera/Tether Market Overview for 2025-11-07

Summary
• Price drifted from 0.1626 to 0.17311, closing at 0.17311 on rising volume.
• Momentum showed mixed signals with overbought RSI and expanding Bollinger Bands.
• A bullish breakout above 0.1708 may trigger further gains ahead.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at 0.1626 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.17419, and closed at 0.17311 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 71,614,087.00 with a turnover of approximately $11,939,274.00.

The price action on the 15-minute chart displayed several bullish and bearish candlestick patterns. A key resistance level formed near 0.1708, with a breakdown of 0.16244–0.1708 representing a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from a prior swing. A potential bullish engulfing pattern appeared after 16:30 ET, suggesting strength in the upward move. On the downside, 0.16523 acted as a minor support level before the price continued its upward bias. Volatility increased as Bollinger Bands widened, indicating rising market participation and uncertainty in near-term direction.

Moving averages showed HBARUSDT trading above both the 20-period and 50-period EMAs on the 15-minute chart, confirming a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day EMA was at approximately 0.1694, slightly below the current price, suggesting a mixed longer-term trend. The price also remained above the 200-day SMA, which could reinforce a structural bullish bias for now.

The MACD showed a golden cross with the signal line around 16:30 ET, reinforcing the bullish breakout. RSI pushed into overbought territory above 70, indicating a potential pullback could be near. Bollinger Bands showed a notable expansion, which typically precedes a continuation move. However, the divergence between rising price and mixed volume signals raises a cautionary note—price could consolidate or retest key levels before continuing its trend.

Backtest Hypothesis
The MACD-based strategy backtested from 2022-01-01 through 2025-11-07 produced a poor total return of –41.5% under the tested conditions. Despite a few profitable trades aligned with recent bullish moves (e.g., the 16:30 ET golden cross), the strategy was unable to offset large losses from prolonged downtrends. Maximum drawdown reached 88.8%, with a Sharpe ratio of approximately 0.29, indicating suboptimal risk-adjusted returns. Given the recent MACD signal and the current overbought RSI, the strategy would have triggered a long entry in this period—however, without additional risk controls like a stop-loss or trend filter, it remains highly volatile. A more refined approach—perhaps with tighter exits or shorter-term MACD settings—might be more suitable for HBARUSDT’s erratic behavior.

HBARUSDT may see short-term upside potential, with 0.17311 as a recent peak. However, the overbought RSI and recent divergence in volume suggest caution. A retest of 0.1708 and potential pullback to 0.16805 could occur in the next 24 hours. Investors should remain alert for any bearish reversal signs.