Hedera HBAR Surges 9% on Bullish Harmonic Pattern Amid 103% Monthly Rally

Hedera (HBAR) has emerged as a focal point for technical analysts following the development of a key harmonic pattern on its daily chart, suggesting a potential bullish continuation. Recent price action indicates a 9% gain in a single day, extending the token’s monthly surge to over 103%. This momentum has drawn attention as HBAR approaches the CD leg of a Bearish Crab harmonic pattern—a structure often associated with strong upward movements during its final phase [1]. The pattern began with a low at $0.1275, followed by a rebound to $0.2922, aligning with Fibonacci ratios that project a target near $0.4262, representing a potential 45% increase from current levels [1].

Technical observers emphasize the significance of HBAR’s position relative to key moving averages and Fibonacci extensions. The 200-day moving average acts as a critical support level; a breakdown below this threshold could invalidate the bullish scenario and trigger renewed downward pressure. Conversely, a sustained break above this level may confirm the pattern’s validity, potentially attracting institutional buying and triggering stop-loss orders [1]. Analysts also highlight the importance of volume and order flow dynamics in reinforcing the pattern’s reliability, as robust buying pressure observed in on-chain metrics supports the case for a short-term rally [1].

The broader cryptocurrency market context adds nuance to HBAR’s technical outlook. While Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded to $3,775 from a recent low of $3,509, signaling renewed bullish sentiment, HBAR’s performance remains distinct. Its price action reflects growing interest in layer-2 blockchain solutions, where Hedera’s consensus algorithm and enterprise partnerships position it as a competitive player. However, analysts caution that this move should not be interpreted as a long-term investment thesis. Instead, the focus remains on tactical trading opportunities, with strict risk management emphasized due to the volatile crypto landscape and mixed global regulatory developments [1].

The projected $0.4262 target aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the XA leg of the pattern, a level that could attract further speculative buying if validated. Traders are advised to monitor the BOS (Break of Structure) event closely, as its confirmation could act as a catalyst for a broader market reaction. Momentum indicators, such as the RSI and MACD, will also provide critical insights into whether the upward move is sustainable or showing signs of exhaustion. A divergence in these metrics could signal premature momentum depletion, warranting caution [1].

While the harmonic pattern presents a compelling case for near-term optimism, the absence of macroeconomic tailwinds in the crypto market underscores the need for disciplined execution. Institutional adoption of layer-2 solutions may provide additional support, but traders must remain vigilant against regulatory shifts that could disrupt market dynamics. For now, HBAR’s technical setup offers a defined risk-reward profile, with the 200-day moving average serving as a pivotal benchmark for trend continuation [1].

Source: [1] [SwallowAcademy — Trading Ideas and Scripts] [https://www.tradingview.com/u/SwallowAcademy/]