Hecla Mining Surges 9.7% on Earnings Beat and S&P Inclusion: Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Hecla Mining (HL) trades at $18.87, up 9.74% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $18.92
• Q3 2025 earnings beat estimates with $0.15 EPS vs. $0.09 expected
• S&P MidCap 400 index inclusion effective December 22, 2025
• Polaris Exploration Project in Nevada receives regulatory approval
Hecla Mining’s stock has erupted on a historic day, driven by a combination of earnings outperformance, index inclusion, and regulatory greenlights. The 9.74% intraday surge reflects investor optimism about the company’s operational momentum and strategic positioning in the precious metals sector. With gold and silver prices surging, HL’s rally aligns with broader commodity trends and speculative positioning.

Earnings Beat and S&P Inclusion Fuel Hecla Mining's Rally
Hecla Mining’s explosive move stems from three catalysts: a Q3 2025 earnings beat with $0.15 EPS (vs. $0.09 expected) and $410M revenue (vs. $274.62M expected), S&P MidCap 400 index inclusion boosting institutional demand, and regulatory approval for the Polaris Exploration Project in Nevada. These developments validate the company’s operational efficiency and growth pipeline, particularly in a sector where gold and silver prices are at multi-decade highs. The inclusion in the S&P MidCap 400 is expected to attract passive and active fund flows, while the Polaris project adds exploration upside in a key silver-producing region.

Precious Metals Sector Rally: Hecla Mining Outpaces Newmont
The precious metals sector is in a bull phase, with gold at $4,274/oz and silver surging past $60/oz. Newmont (NEM), the sector’s largest player, is up 5.05% intraday, but Hecla Mining’s 9.74% move outpaces it, reflecting smaller-cap momentum and speculative positioning. While Newmont benefits from gold’s structural demand, Hecla’s dual focus on silver and gold, coupled with its index inclusion and exploration projects, positions it as a high-beta play on commodity inflation and mining sector consolidation.

Bullish Technicals and High-Leverage Options Signal Aggressive Buy Setup
• MACD: 0.96 (bullish divergence), RSI: 68.08 (overbought), 200D MA: $8.47 (far below price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $18.87 (near upper band of $18.48), 30D MA: $14.80 (support)
• Short-term bullish trend confirmed by 11.05% intraday gain and 52W high retest
HL’s technicals scream continuation. The RSI at 68.08 suggests overbought conditions, but the 200D MA at $8.47 and Bollinger Bands (upper at $18.48) indicate strong momentum. Traders should target key levels: $19.50 (next resistance) and $18.50 (support).

Top Options Picks:
1. HL20251219C19 (Call, $19 strike, 12/19 expiry):
• IV: 73.85% (high volatility)
• Leverage: 20.12% (high gearing)
• Delta: 0.547 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0915 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1787 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: $27,785 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($19.81): $0.81/share (8.1% return).
This contract offers aggressive leverage with high gamma, ideal for a short-term rally.

2. HL20251219C19.5 (Call, $19.5 strike, 12/19 expiry):
• IV: 77.05% (high volatility)
• Leverage: 25.15% (extreme gearing)
• Delta: 0.462 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0872 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1717 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: $15,037 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($19.81): $0.31/share (3.1% return).
While lower payoff, the 25.15% leverage makes this ideal for a breakout above $19.50.

Action: Aggressive bulls should buy HL20251219C19 into a breakout above $19.50. If $19.50 holds, consider rolling into HL20251219C19.5 for higher leverage.

Backtest Hecla Mining Stock Performance
The backtest of HL's performance after a 10% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 52.97%, the 10-Day win rate is 57.46%, and the 30-Day win rate is 63.80%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 10.07%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that HL can deliver significant gains following a 10% intraday increase.

Hecla Mining’s Rally Gains Momentum: Act Now on Index Inclusion and Commodity Tailwinds
Hecla Mining’s 9.74% surge is a blend of earnings outperformance, index inclusion, and commodity inflation. The stock’s technicals and options liquidity suggest a continuation above $19.50, with Newmont’s 5.05% gain underscoring sector strength. Investors should prioritize the HL20251219C19 call for a short-term play, while monitoring the 52W high at $18.92 as a critical support level. With gold and silver prices surging, HL’s exploration projects and index inclusion position it as a high-conviction trade in the 2026 commodity cycle.