HC Wainwright & Co. Maintains McEwen (MUX) Buy Recommendation with Average One-Year Price Target of $15.81/Share

HC Wainwright & Co. maintains a Buy recommendation for McEwen (MUX) with a projected annual revenue of 234MM, up 39.16% YoY, and a non-GAAP EPS of -0.84. The average one-year price target is $15.81/share, down 16.57% from the latest closing price. There are 173 funds reporting positions in MUX, with an average portfolio weight of 0.08%.

McEwen Mining's Los Azules copper project in San Juan, Argentina, has received a significant boost following the release of a feasibility study and the project's inclusion in Argentina's Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI). The study outlines a mid-tier project with a 21-year life, a post-tax net present value (NPV) of $2.9 billion (C$4 billion), and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 19.8%. Initial capital costs total $3.17 billion. The project, located at 3,500 meters elevation in the Andes mountains, is expected to start construction next year and begin producing copper by 2030.

The feasibility study, released on September 12, 2025, provides a clear, actionable development plan for the Los Azules project. It includes a change in production method from a flotation concentrator to an open pit with a heap leaching and solvent extraction and electrowinning (SX/EW) operation, producing 99.9% copper cathodes. The study also plans for total renewable power at the site through wind, hydro, and solar sources. The project's proven and probable reserves grade 0.45% copper, containing 10.2 billion pounds of copper.

The inclusion of Los Azules in RIGI confers several benefits, including tax exemptions, foreign exchange protections, and accelerated customs processes. These benefits could lower capital costs, raise after-tax net cash flow, and lift the IRR and NPV while shortening the payback period. The 30-year planned stability of RIGI also diminishes financing risk and could help raise the NPV.

McEwen Mining's shares gained 6.7% to $26.42 apiece following the study's release, valuing the company at $993.4 million (C$1.3 billion). The stock has traded in a 12-month range of $9.13 to $26.25. The feasibility study estimates average annual cathode production of 148,200 tonnes at $1.71 per pound over the mine's 21-year life, with 204,800 tonnes annually in the first five years. All-in sustaining costs are pegged at $2.11 per pound.

McEwen Mining is working to secure financing to build Los Azules. The project represents a significant opportunity for Argentina's mining sector and the global copper market, with construction planned to begin in 2026 and first copper production targeted for 2030. The project's strategic timing aligns with global copper production forecasts predicting significant copper supply deficits by 2030, driven by electrification trends and renewable energy expansion.