HBAR's Whale Buys Battle Bearish Tech Signs as Price Stands at a Volatile Crossroads

HBAR Price Faces Volatility as Whale Accumulation and Technical Indicators Signal Mixed Outlook

Whale activity in the Hedera (HBAR) ecosystem has intensified, with large investors adding approximately 127.8 million HBAR (worth ~$26.8 million) in two days, according to on-chain dataHBAR Price Faces 10% Risk as Whales Step In - BeInCrypto^[1]. This accumulation, concentrated in wallets holding over 10 million and 100 million tokens, reflects growing institutional confidence despite the broader market's cautious sentiment. The number of addresses holding 10 million+ HBAR rose from 129.18 to 130.96, while 100 million+ wallets increased from 38.46 to 39.56 since October 6HBAR Price Faces 10% Risk as Whales Step In - BeInCrypto^[1]. However, the Smart Money Index (SMI), which tracks high-confidence trader activity, has flattened after a peak on October 6, indicating a lack of aggressive positioning for a near-term reboundHBAR Price Faces 10% Risk as Whales Step In - BeInCrypto^[1].

Technically, HBAR is trading within a rising wedge pattern on the 12-hour chart, a bearish formation as prices test the $0.21 support levelHBAR Price Faces 10% Risk as Whales Step In - BeInCrypto^[1]. A breakdown below this threshold could push the token toward $0.20 and $0.19, marking a 10% downside risk. The Bull-Bear Power (BBP) indicator has turned red, signaling weak buyer momentum after a similar correction in late SeptemberHBAR Price Faces 10% Risk as Whales Step In - BeInCrypto^[1]. Meanwhile, elevated funding rates-peaking at 0.057% on July 18-suggest sustained bullish leverage, though these levels remain below overheated thresholds, reducing the risk of a long squeezeHBAR Price Eyes Breakout as Whale Wallets Surge - ChainAffairs^[2].

In contrast, recent accumulation by large holders-particularly wallets with 1 million+ HBAR-has surged, with the number of such addresses rising from 67.28% to 71.41% over the past weekHBAR Price Eyes Breakout as Whale Wallets Surge - ChainAffairs^[2]. Wallets holding 10 million+ HBAR jumped to 91.62%, reflecting a strategic buildup by institutional players. This trend aligns with historical correlations between whale accumulation and price appreciation in digital assetsHBAR Price Eyes Breakout as Whale Wallets Surge - ChainAffairs^[2]. However, the divergence between whale buying and flat SMI activity underscores a potential period of sideways or downward movementHBAR Price Faces 10% Risk as Whales Step In - BeInCrypto^[1].

HBAR's price action around key Fibonacci levels further complicates the outlook. The token recently broke above the 0.236 resistance at $0.25 and is consolidating near the 0.382 extension at $0.27HBAR Price Eyes Breakout as Whale Wallets Surge - ChainAffairs^[2]. A sustained hold above this level could target the 0.5 Fib resistance at $0.28 and the 0.618 level at $0.30. A breakout past $0.30 could align with the 2025 high of $0.3227, supported by on-chain accumulation and momentum indicatorsHedera Price Prediction Eyes $0.32 Retest as Whale Accumulation and Momentum Strengthen - BraveNewCoin^[3]. Conversely, a drop below $0.25 would invalidate the bullish case, with $0.22 marking a critical bearish thresholdHBAR Price Eyes Breakout as Whale Wallets Surge - ChainAffairs^[2].

Looking ahead, HBAR faces a pivotal juncture. Whale accumulation and elevated funding rates suggest a potential for upward momentum, but technical indicators like the rising wedge and red BBP signal caution. The token's ability to hold key support levels and confirm a breakout above $0.23 will determine whether the bears or bulls gain control. For now, continued whale buying remains the best hope for mitigating a deeper correctionHBAR Price Faces 10% Risk as Whales Step In - BeInCrypto^[1].