HBAR Token's 15% Plunge: Bearish Momentum and On-Chain Signals Point to Deeper Declines

The native token of Hedera (HBAR) has plunged 15% over the past week, hitting a two-month low of $0.2077 as bearish sentiment intensifies across derivatives and spot marketsHBAR Slides to 2-Month Low; Traders Bet on Deeper Decline^[1]. This sharp decline, driven by a combination of technical breakdowns, reduced open interest, and on-chain outflows, raises critical questions about the token's near-term trajectory.

Technical Deterioration and Liquidity Concerns

HBAR's breakdown below its 20-day EMA at $0.2281 has confirmed a shift in momentum, with the 20-day EMA now acting as dynamic resistanceHBAR Slides to 2-Month Low; Traders Bet on Deeper Decline^[1]. Traders are now bracing for a test of the $0.1788 support level, a threshold that, if breached, could trigger algorithmic selling toward $0.195Is Hedera in Danger? HBAR Could Drop 15% Soon^[3]. Derivatives data exacerbates the bearish outlook: open interest has fallen 26% since September 13, signaling reduced capital inflows and increased position closuresHBAR Slides to 2-Month Low; Traders Bet on Deeper Decline^[1]. This liquidity contraction heightens volatility risks, as even modest selling pressure could accelerate further declines.

The long/short ratio of 0.86 underscores the imbalance in market positioning, with short sellers now outnumbering longsHBAR Slides to 2-Month Low; Traders Bet on Deeper Decline^[1]. Such a ratio typically precedes extended bearish phases, as short positions gain leverage during downward spirals. Meanwhile, a recovery above $0.2212—a level tied to the 20-day SMA—would require significant capital inflow to rekindle bullish momentumHBAR Slides to 2-Month Low; Traders Bet on Deeper Decline^[1], a scenario that appears unlikely given current market dynamics.

Overlay technical indicators like RSI and MACD show bearish divergenceHBAR Slides to 2-Month Low; Traders Bet on Deeper Decline^[1], suggesting weakening momentum despite price highs. A backtest of this pattern—selling HBAR on MACD Top Divergence and holding for 30 trading days—reveals no historical instances of such signals since 2022Hedera and the Crypto Market: Key Insights, Trends, and Technical …^[4]. This absence aligns with HBAR's prolonged bearish trend, where range-bound or declining price action has limited classic higher-high structures.

On-Chain Sentiment: Mixed Signals Amid Outflows

On-chain activity in September 2025 reveals a fractured narrative. While HBAR's transaction volumes surged 7% in late September, pushing the token toward key resistance levelsHBAR Price Prediction: Technical Analysis Points to $0.15-$0.25 Range Through October 2025^[2], broader metrics tell a different story. The token's high correlation with Bitcoin (0.92) has amplified its decline as BTC's bearish trend dragged HBAR lowerWhat To Expect From HBAR Price In September 2025? - Bitget^[5]. Additionally, stablecoin market cap on the Hedera network has dropped 53%, signaling reduced liquidity for real-world asset applicationsHedera and the Crypto Market: Key Insights, Trends, and Technical …^[4].

Whale activity offers a glimmer of optimism, with large account holders accumulating HBAR despite retail outflowsIs Hedera in Danger? HBAR Could Drop 15% Soon^[3]. However, this institutional interest contrasts sharply with retail traders' exodus, creating a tug-of-war that could prolong consolidation. The NVT (Network Value to Transactions) ratio, though not explicitly quantified in recent reports, appears to reflect undervaluation relative to transaction growthHBAR Price Prediction: Technical Analysis Points to $0.15-$0.25 Range Through October 2025^[2]. If HBAR's utility continues to outpace its market cap, the NVT could normalize, but this would require sustained price stability—a scenario currently at odds with the token's volatility.

Broader Market Context: A Critical Juncture

HBAR's price trajectory is now hinged on its ability to defend key psychological levels. Analysts project a short-term decline to $0.15 if the $0.21 support failsHBAR Price Prediction: Technical Analysis Points to $0.15-$0.25 Range Through October 2025^[2], while a rebound above $0.25 could initiate a 4-6 week rally toward $0.28HBAR Slides to 2-Month Low; Traders Bet on Deeper Decline^[1]. However, the token's historical weakness in September—averaging 10% declines—adds a layer of skepticism to bullish forecastsWhat To Expect From HBAR Price In September 2025? - Bitget^[5].

Enterprise partnerships, including supply chain tracking and carbon credit validation, remain a foundational narrativeHBAR Slides to 2-Month Low; Traders Bet on Deeper Decline^[1]. Yet, these developments have yet to translate into robust on-chain adoption. The network's capacity to handle 10,000 transactions per secondWhat To Expect From HBAR Price In September 2025? - Bitget^[5] is a technical strength, but without a corresponding rise in active addresses, this capability remains underutilized.

Conclusion: A Bearish Bias Prevails

HBAR's technical and on-chain fundamentals paint a cautiously bearish picture. The confluence of declining open interest, bearish momentum indicators, and a fragile support structure suggests further downside is likely in the near term. While institutional accumulation and enterprise adoption offer long-term hope, these factors are unlikely to offset immediate selling pressure. Investors should closely monitor the $0.21 support level, as its integrity will determine whether HBAR enters a deeper correction or initiates a short-lived rebound.