HBAR's Technical Breakdown: A Bearish Signal Amid Surging Institutional Selling

HBAR, the native token of the Hedera network, has experienced a volatile price trajectory in late 2025, marked by surging ETF inflows and institutional participation. While bullish patterns like the falling wedge and ascending triangle initially suggested a potential 150% upside to $0.50, InvestorEmpires notes that recent technical and on-chain data reveal a deteriorating short-term outlook. This article examines the bearish signals emerging from HBAR's price action, institutional selling dynamics, and risk management strategies for traders navigating this uncertain phase.

Technical Deterioration: Bearish Indicators Take Hold

HBAR's technical indicators have shifted decisively bearish in October–November 2025. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below the critical 50.0 threshold, signaling weakening upward momentum and a lack of buying pressure, according to Investing.com. Concurrently, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains negative, reflecting sustained outflows and bearish sentiment. These metrics align with a broader breakdown in key support levels.

A critical development occurred in late November, when HBAR failed to break above $0.1920, triggering a sharp correction to $0.1892. This breakdown invalidated the ascending triangle pattern and introduced bearish intraday channels, as Coindesk reports. Analysts now warn that a failure to hold the $0.1880 level could expose the token to further declines toward $0.1750, as Coindesk notes. Additionally, the 14-day RSI at 32.318 reinforces the sell signal, while moving averages across multiple timeframes generate more sell signals than buys, as Investing.com reports.

Institutional Selling Intensifies

Institutional activity has played a pivotal role in HBAR's recent underperformance. Data from Yahoo Finance indicates that heavy selling in late October and early November pushed trading volumes above 55 million tokens in a single trading hour, a sign of aggressive rebalancing by corporate treasuries, as Yahoo Finance reports. This selling pressure coincided with regulatory uncertainties surrounding enterprise blockchain adoption, prompting cautious positioning among institutional investors, as Yahoo Finance notes.

While ETF inflows-particularly from the Canary HBAR ETF-have injected $44 million into the market, InvestorEmpires, these inflows appear insufficient to counterbalance the outflows. A report by Coindesk notes that institutional profit-taking in late November triggered a 4.62% pullback, despite initial gains to $0.188, as Coindesk reports. This suggests that while long-term institutional confidence remains intact, short-term liquidity constraints are amplifying volatility.

Risk Management Strategies for Short-Term Bearish Positioning

Given the deteriorating technical and institutional landscape, traders should adopt disciplined risk management strategies:

1. Stop-Loss Placement: Position stop-loss orders just above key resistance levels, such as $0.1880, to limit downside exposure if the price rebounds.
2. Position Sizing: Allocate smaller positions to HBAR given its heightened volatility, ensuring that potential losses do not disproportionately impact the portfolio.
3. Hedging: Consider short-term options or inverse ETFs to hedge against further declines, particularly if broader market conditions worsen.
4. Monitoring Thresholds: Closely watch the $0.1750 and $0.162 support levels. A break below $0.162 could trigger a cascade of liquidations and retest the 2025 lows, as Coindesk notes.

Conclusion

HBAR's technical breakdown in late 2025, coupled with surging institutional selling, presents a compelling case for short-term bearish positioning. While the token's long-term fundamentals-such as its integration with Google Cloud and ETF adoption-remain intact, immediate risks are skewed to the downside. Traders must remain vigilant, leveraging technical indicators and institutional flow data to navigate this volatile phase. As always, prudent risk management will be critical in preserving capital amid the uncertainty.