HBAR Shows Signs of Stabilization Amid Mixed Technical Indicators and Liquidity Risks

HBAR is trading near $0.0826 and has been consolidating within a descending channel for nearly four months, with potential for a breakout that could trigger up to $6.2 million in short liquidations. The Money Flow Index (MFI) is showing a bullish divergence as HBAR prints lower price lows but higher MFI lows, suggesting rising buying pressure beneath the surface. Derivatives data highlights growing risk for bearish traders, with a breakout above the $0.1042 resistance level potentially flipping it into support and pushing the price toward $0.129.

HBAR has shown signs of stabilization as it trades near key support levels, with RSI approaching oversold territory and a falling wedge pattern suggesting potential for either a breakout or breakdown. Technical indicators remain mixed, with some pointing to short-term rebounds and others indicating longer-term bearish momentum. The token remains below its key moving averages, including the 20-day at $0.10 and 200-day at $0.18.

A breakout above $0.10 could drive HBAR toward the $0.11–$0.12 range, with confirmation expected through RSI above 50, positive MACD, and increased volume. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.09 could lead to a test of $0.08 and potentially extend the decline toward $0.085. Traders are advised to monitor key resistance and support levels as the price remains in a critical phase for directional clarity.

The recent 4% price rise in HBAR has brought it to $0.09418, showing resilience despite broader altcoin weakness. The Supertrend remains bearish, and increased volume reinforces bearish pressure. A breakout above $0.0994 could target $0.11 to $0.1358, while a breakdown below $0.088 would expose the $0.083–$0.085 zone.

A major challenge for HBAR is the elevated level of leveraged positions in the futures market, with a futures-to-spot volume ratio at 4x and open interest at $108.7 million. This high concentration of leveraged capital creates a vulnerability for sharp reversals and potential cascading liquidations. In the past 24 hours, $1.6 million in futures positions were liquidated.

The structural weakness for HBAR is also evident in the broader market context, with the token down nearly 47% over the past three months and having lost almost 67% from its September highs. Total Value Locked (TVL) has fallen more than 50% since September, and spot ETF inflows remain absent. Until on-chain liquidity stabilizes and institutional capital begins to flow, the price lacks the fundamental support needed for a sustained recovery.

The immediate rebound began after selling pressure peaked at a precise capitulation level, with a long wick near $0.07766 signaling the exhaustion of distribution and a potential shift in market structure. The next major hurdle is the immediate resistance at $0.107, with a sustained break above this level potentially confirming a bullish reversal.

What is the current technical outlook for HBAR?

HBAR is currently trading near $0.09, with the RSI in neutral territory and MACD in negative territory. The token remains below the key moving averages, signaling underlying bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands indicate HBAR is closer to the lower band at $0.08, potentially setting up for a bounce or breakdown. A breakout above $0.10 could target $0.12, representing a 33% gain, while a breakdown below $0.09 could lead to a test of $0.08.

What are the key risks and opportunities for HBAR investors?

HBAR investors should remain cautious as the market remains vulnerable to sudden price swings. A breakdown below $0.088 would test the resilience of the RWA ecosystem and investor confidence. The bearish trend remains a challenge, with risks including broader market weakness and regulatory issues. Position sizing should remain conservative due to the bearish trend.

What is the significance of the current market structure for HBAR?

The current market structure for HBAR is significant due to its prolonged consolidation within a descending channel. A breakout from this pattern appears increasingly likely as selling pressure dissipates on a macro scale. Confirmation would require HBAR to breach the channel's upper trendline and flip $0.1042 into support. Such a move would trigger short liquidations and push the price toward $0.129. However, downside risk remains if broader market conditions fail to improve, with a loss of the $0.0786 support weakening the structure.

HBAR's price action has diverged from the broader altcoin weakness, remaining within a defined range of $0.0839 to $0.0994. This suggests a steady demand base, though any rebound is likely to be limited by Bitcoin's bearish sentiment and technical indicators. Institutional developments may stabilize the price, but current market conditions remain challenging.