HBAR's Rally Fails Technical Tests as Key Levels Dictate Fate

HBAR's recent price recovery has failed to convince traders, as critical technical indicators signal waning bullish momentum. The token surged nearly 26% from its November 21 low near $0.12, with a 4% gain in the past 24 hours. However, analysts warn that the rally lacks the strength to confirm a sustained turnaround, leaving the coin vulnerable to a sharp reversal.

The key technical setup—a cup-and-handle pattern on the 4-hour chart—has begun to unravel. This bullish formation, which typically predicts a breakout after a consolidation phase, requires a decisive close above $0.147 to validate its potential. A sustained move past $0.158 could trigger a projected target of $0.194.

Yet, the pattern's viability is under threat as the Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator, a measure of buying pressure, has steadily declined since November 23. While BBP remains positive, its downward slope suggests buyers are losing control at a critical juncture. A drop below $0.143 would invalidate the pattern entirely, shifting the outlook to bearish territory.

The broader context is equally concerning. HBAR remains trapped in a falling channel, a technical structure where both price highs and lows trend downward. The November 21 rebound from the channel's lower boundary—a 27% bounce—fizzled quickly, reflecting weak institutional support. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which tracks large-capital inflows, has stayed below its trendline since early November and has not crossed above zero, underscoring the absence of major buyer participation. This lack of "big money" backing raises doubts about the sustainability of the recent rally.

Traders are now watching for a critical decision point. A sustained close above $0.147 could reignite the cup-and-handle's bullish case, but a breakdown below $0.143 would likely trigger a retest of the November 21 lows. Market participants are advised to monitor these levels closely, as the outcome could determine whether HBAR's short-term trajectory turns upward or spirals downward.