HBAR's Rally Faces Crucial Test at $0.17 as Bears Lurk

HBAR, the native token of the Hedera Hashgraph network, surged to $0.1439 on November 21, 2025, after breaking its four-hourly (4H) swing high, reigniting investor interest in the asset. The move follows a sharp 11.5% decline in October that shattered key support levels, per a Coindesk analysis. Traders are now closely watching $0.17 and $0.19 as critical resistance targets, with technical indicators suggesting further upward momentum could materialize if these levels hold.

The recent price action underscores HBAR's volatility amid broader crypto market uncertainty. In October, HBAR plummeted from $0.1426 to $0.1281, breaching the $0.1350 support level and triggering a wave of institutional selling. Trading volume during the peak of the selloff spiked 98% above average, reaching 250.3 million. However, the current rebound appears to stem from renewed buying pressure, with bulls eyeing the $0.17 and $0.19 levels as potential catalysts for a sustained rally.

Technical analysts note that HBAR's path to $0.19 is not without challenges. The token is forming a descending channel, with resistance capped at $0.1400.

A clean break above this level could signal a shift in sentiment, but bears remain active, given the token's history of volatility. Grayscale, in a recent report, warned that while macroeconomic tailwinds are favorable for crypto, overbought conditions and regulatory risks could dampen gains in the fourth quarter.

The broader market environment also plays a role in HBAR's trajectory. On the same day as HBAR's rise, Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) reported robust Q3 earnings, with revenue exceeding $423.6 million and EPS hitting $0.19-surpassing forecasts-indicating strong consumer demand and operational efficiency. While unrelated to crypto, the stock's performance highlights a broader trend of market optimism, which could indirectly benefit risk-on assets like HBAR.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials have signaled caution. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that another rate cut in December would be "difficult," citing elevated asset valuations and compressed credit spreads. Such remarks have kept investors wary, with the U.S. dollar index fluctuating amid mixed signals from central banks. For HBAR, a stronger dollar could pose headwinds, as crypto typically underperforms in high-interest-rate environments.

Looking ahead, HBAR's ability to maintain its current momentum will depend on its capacity to attract institutional buyers and stabilize its price. Analysts at Coindesk emphasize that a sustained move above $0.17 would validate the token's breakout, potentially unlocking further gains toward $0.19. However, any failure to hold these levels could reignite selling pressure, particularly if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate or regulatory scrutiny intensifies.