HBAR Nears Critical Support as Selling Pressure Intensifies

HBAR, the native token of Hedera Hashgraph, is facing mounting pressure as it hovers near critical support levels. Over the

past week, the token has dropped nearly 10%, breaking multiple short-term supports and drawing attention to its immediate risk of a 13% breakdown. The current price action suggests that HBAR is caught in a fragile equilibrium, with one key bullish signal still holding the structure together.

Large investors are increasingly withdrawing from the asset, as seen in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) metric, which has fallen sharply into negative territory. This divergence indicates that while the price is forming higher lows, major players are not stepping in to support it. The absence of strong buying pressure raises concerns about HBAR's resilience in the near term, as the CMF has dropped by over 400% since December 7.

The token's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has become its only notable bullish indicator. The RSI has formed a divergence where the price made a lower low, but the RSI made a higher low, signaling potential exhaustion of the selling pressure. This divergence is a classic sign of a possible trend reversal, but it remains to be seen whether it will be enough to halt the downward momentum.

Why the Standoff Happened

HBAR has been in a clear downtrend for months, losing over 48% in the past three months. The token is currently trading below a descending trend line that has contained every recent rally, creating a bearish setup. The $0.12 level acts as a key support, but it has already shown signs of weakening after multiple retests. If this level fails, the next major target for the price would be $0.10, extending the decline by 12-13%. According to market analysis, this scenario is now more likely.

One of the main reasons for the current weakness is the lack of support from larger investors. Earlier in the year, CMF remained positive during pullbacks, indicating that institutional buyers were absorbing selling pressure. Now, that support is absent, and the CMF has dropped by over 400% since December 7. This shift suggests that big money is no longer interested in supporting HBAR, increasing the vulnerability of the price, as the CMF has dropped by over 400% since December 7.

What Analysts Are Watching

Market participants are closely watching whether the RSI divergence can hold up against the bearish structure. While the price remains in a clear downtrend, the RSI's divergence implies that sellers are losing momentum. This could be a sign that the selling pressure is about to exhaust itself, but it is a fragile hope at this point. According to technical analysis, this could signal a potential reversal.

Traders are also monitoring the $0.12 support level as the last line of defense. If HBAR can reclaim $0.13, it would signal that buyers are stepping back into the market. That level aligns with a key Fibonacci retracement zone and could serve as a turning point for the price. However, a failure to hold $0.12 would likely confirm a breakdown toward the next swing low at $0.10.

Risks to the Outlook

The broader market environment is also a headwind for HBAR. Bitcoin dominance has increased, drawing liquidity away from altcoins and making it harder for smaller assets to recover. Over the past 30 days, HBAR has underperformed the broader crypto market, declining by nearly 29% compared to a 10% drop for the overall market. This underperformance suggests a structural weakness in the token's appeal.

Volume data adds to the bearish narrative. Over the past week, trading activity has spiked to over 175% of the recent average, indicating that the selling pressure is coming from larger players rather than retail panic. This kind of volume often suggests a strategic exit rather than a random drop, reinforcing the idea that HBAR's weakness is more than just short-term volatility.

HBAR is now at a critical juncture. The token has one bullish signal left in the form of the RSI divergence, but the overall structure remains bearish. The next few days will be crucial in determining whether HBAR can stabilize at $0.12 or if it will break down into a deeper correction. For now, traders are waiting for a clear signal, either a strong rebound or a decisive breakdown, to define the next move. According to technical analysis, the market is in a state of uncertainty.