HBAR Flashes a Familiar 40% Warning, But Positioning Differs

HBAR's falling wedge pattern and bearish divergence in RSI signal potential for a sharp decline, though current conditions suggest a different outcome than a prior 44% crash.

SBI Holdings' 9% equity stake in Ripple Labs is distinct from direct XRP token holdings, clarifying the firm's strategic exposure to blockchain technology.

HBAR's technical and fundamental developments highlight its institutional focus and evolving network activity, with $0.0961 as a critical support level.

Hedera (HBAR) has formed a technical warning pattern on its daily chart, with a falling wedge and bearish divergence in the RSI suggesting the possibility of a repeat of a prior 44% crash. The pattern indicates sellers remain in control during recovery phases, despite weekly gains of nearly 6%. However, current conditions differ from the prior event, with lower open interest and negative funding rates reducing the likelihood of a large liquidation cascade.

The price has remained above $0.0961, a critical support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. If HBAR holds above this level, the structure remains intact, with potential for a retest of the descending trend and a move toward $0.106. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.0961 could signal a shift toward bearish momentum.

SBI Holdings, a major Japanese financial institution, has clarified that it does not hold $10 billion in XRP but owns a 9% equity stake in Ripple Labs. CEO Yoshitaka Kitao emphasized the distinction between equity ownership and token accumulation, highlighting SBI's strategic focus on blockchain technology. This clarification may influence market sentiment for XRP.

Hedera's fundamentals are shaped by network upgrades and ecosystem developments, particularly in the areas of institutional usage and asset tokenization. The project is supported by its fast and low-cost infrastructure, with technical price action reflecting these developments. Despite a downtrend, the structure remains intact as long as HBAR stays above $0.09.

HBAR's derivatives data indicates a bearish bias, with futures open interest declining to $104.58 million and negative funding rates. The OI-Weighted Funding Rate turned negative, signaling bearish sentiment among traders. However, the MACD remains in a bullish crossover, suggesting that the upside bias has not been invalidated.

What Technical Factors Are Influencing HBAR's Price Action?

HBAR has been trading in a compressed range between $0.0818 and $0.1058, reflecting an oversold condition and a pending SEC decision for a T. Rowe Price crypto ETF that includes HBAR. The price remains below the 50-day EMA at $0.105, which aligns with the upper trendline of a falling wedge pattern. A close below the weekly support at $0.090 could extend losses toward $0.072.

The RSI is at 51 with bearish momentum, suggesting continued selling pressure. However, the Money Flow Index (MFI) is rising as prices correct, indicating dip buying activity. If HBAR moves above $0.107, it could open the path toward $0.124 and potentially higher.

How Are Market Participants Positioning for HBAR's Future Moves?

Funding rates and open interest data suggest that traders are positioning for a potential price decline, with more shorts paying longs. The MFI indicates that buying pressure is gradually building, signaling accumulation may be underway. An MFI reading above the neutral 50 mark suggests that buyers are regaining influence.

Futures markets show heavy liquidations and negative funding rates, but separate inflows to the Canary Capital HBAR ETF indicate some accumulation activity. Broader derivatives data offer a mixed but slightly constructive outlook, with positive funding rates reflecting expectations of upward price movement. However, volatility in the funding rate over the past two weeks highlights lingering uncertainty.

What Could Trigger a Significant Move in HBAR's Price?

A significant move in HBAR's price could be triggered by a decisive breakout above $0.1035, which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A move above this level would signal a short-term structural shift and could attract fresh demand. The next target would stand at $0.1109, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Conversely, a breakdown below $0.0961 could shift the short-term structure bearish, with HBAR potentially declining toward $0.0870. A breakdown below the $0.0961 support would invalidate the immediate recovery outlook and restore stronger control to sellers.

The pending SEC decision for the T. Rowe Price crypto ETF, scheduled for February 26, 2026, could also influence HBAR's price dynamics. The inclusion of HBAR in a $1.8 trillion actively managed crypto ETF could provide a market catalyst for price movement.

Overall, HBAR's price action and market positioning suggest a mix of bearish and bullish signals, with the outcome likely determined by near-term technical and regulatory developments.