HBAR's ETF Collapse and Technical Weakness: A Warning of Deeper Price Downtrend

The recent performance of HBAR, the native token of the Hedera Hashgraph network, has raised significant concerns among investors and analysts. A combination of institutional selling pressure and deteriorating technical indicators suggests a deepening price downtrend, with implications that extend beyond the token's immediate volatility. This analysis examines the interplay between institutional behavior and technical breakdowns, offering a framework for understanding HBAR's current trajectory.

Institutional Selling: A Catalyst for the Downtrend

HBAR's price collapse in 2025 has been exacerbated by pronounced institutional selling activity. On Thursday, the token fell 4% as large-volume trades-peaking at 52.21 million tokens-pushed prices to session lows near $0.1367. This surge in trading volume, which spiked 47% above the daily average, underscores the role of institutional participants in accelerating the selloff. Such activity is often a precursor to further declines, as large-scale liquidation of positions can create a self-reinforcing cycle of bearish sentiment.

The correlation between HBAR and Bitcoin (BTC) further amplifies these risks. With a 0.79 correlation coefficient, HBAR's movements closely mirror BTC's performance. As Bitcoin struggles to regain momentum amid broader market weakness, HBAR remains trapped in a bearish narrative. Institutional investors, who often hedge or rebalance portfolios in response to macroeconomic shifts, have likely contributed to this dynamic. For instance, the Federal Reserve's October 2025 rate cut, while fostering a more risk-on environment for some assets, has not been enough to offset the selling pressure from institutional players.

The backdrop has become a familiar setting for HBAR as it continues to lose ground.

Technical Breakdowns: A Bearish Confirmation

From a technical perspective, HBAR's price action has been equally concerning. The token has repeatedly failed to hold above key resistance levels, most notably the $0.16 mark, which aligns with the EMA 26 and SMA 20 moving averages. A breakdown below this level would confirm a continuation of the downtrend, potentially dragging HBAR toward $0.110 support. This scenario is further reinforced by the Squeeze Momentum Indicator, which triggered heightened volatility but instead resulted in a sharp price drop, signaling exhaustion of bullish momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) offers a mixed signal. While the current RSI of 40.62 suggests moderate strength and potential exhaustion of selling pressure, the token's inability to close above critical moving averages indicates that bearish forces remain dominant. Additionally, HBAR's consolidation below the EMA 26 and SMA 20 has created a structural barrier to upside movement, with institutional selling intensifying during resistance tests.

The Path Forward: A Delicate Balance

Despite the bearish outlook, there are glimmers of optimism. Analysts at MEXC predict a potential rally to $0.18–$0.20 by December 2025, driven by emerging bullish divergences in technical indicators. However, this scenario hinges on two critical conditions: a sustained rebound in Bitcoin and a reduction in institutional selling pressure. The latter could be influenced by HBAR's slowing supply growth post-2025, which may reduce dilutionary effects and stabilize the price.

Conversely, a breakdown below $0.12 would signal a more severe bearish scenario, with prices potentially declining 50% toward $0.07. This threshold is particularly vulnerable given the token's recent inability to defend even lower support levels, such as $0.1367.

Conclusion: A Cautionary Tale for Investors

HBAR's current trajectory reflects a confluence of institutional and technical factors that warrant close monitoring. While short-term rebounds are possible, the broader downtrend remains intact, driven by persistent selling pressure and weak technical structure. Investors should remain cautious, particularly as the token's performance remains inextricably linked to Bitcoin's fortunes. Until HBAR can decisively break above $0.16 and sustain momentum, the risk of further declines-potentially to $0.110 or below-remains elevated.