What if HBAR’s ETF approval triggers a $1 price revolution?

The approval of spot HBAR exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is drawing significant institutional attention, with the likelihood of regulatory clearance now standing at 90% according to market data. Grayscale and Canary have both submitted applications to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with a final decision expected by November 11, 2025. This development could catalyze a surge in institutional and retail interest in HBAR, similar to the recent adoption patterns observed with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Analysts and market observers are closely watching the timeline as it presents a clear catalyst for near-term market activity and long-term value creation.

From a technical standpoint, HBAR’s price trajectory has shown volatility and mixed signals over the past few months. The token has been trading around $0.217, hovering just above the lower Bollinger Band, with a bearish bias evident in the daily chart. Resistance levels appear to be forming around $0.23 and $0.25, while key support areas are identified near $0.20 and $0.18. Analysts suggest that a decisive close above $0.23 would signal renewed buying interest and potentially trigger a breakout. Conversely, a drop below $0.20 could force the price into a deeper consolidation phase, delaying the bullish narrative. The compression of volatility, as seen in the narrowing Bollinger Bands, is viewed as a precursor to a larger price movement, likely upward if the ETF narrative continues to gain traction.

Institutional approval is expected to provide a structural boost to HBAR by attracting a broader range of investors, including pension funds and hedge funds, which typically require streamlined access to digital assets. The introduction of a spot ETF would allow such investors to gain exposure to HBAR without the complexities of navigating cryptocurrency exchanges directly. With Grayscale’s involvement, there are strong expectations of guaranteed liquidity should the product launch. This institutional-grade exposure could also help establish a more stable and transparent pricing mechanism for HBAR, aligning it more closely with traditional financial instruments. Analysts predict that the combination of regulatory clarity and institutional interest could drive the price toward $0.28, with potential to retest $0.30 if the approval is granted and market sentiment remains favorable.

Beyond technical and regulatory factors, market observers highlight HBAR’s accumulation phase as a critical period ahead of the ETF decision. The current price range of $0.20 to $0.21 offers an attractive risk-reward profile for traders and investors who anticipate a positive outcome in November. If the price manages to hold above this range, it could serve as a solid base for a larger upward move, especially with the increased narrative surrounding ETF approval. A breakout above $0.23 would be a key confirmation of bullish momentum, while a sustained decline below $0.20 would likely delay the bullish thesis and send the price into a deeper correction phase. Traders are advised to closely monitor these levels as the timeline for approval draws closer.

Looking ahead, the market is pricing in a high probability of a positive outcome for HBAR ETF applications, with some analysts projecting a potential 123% rally in the token’s price should the SEC approve the products. The first major price target identified by analysts is $0.504, followed by a potential move toward $1. These projections are based on a bullish pennant flag pattern observed on the weekly chart, which has formed after a significant price run-up earlier in the year. The pattern suggests a continuation of the upward trend, provided that buyers can sustain momentum above $0.21. A successful breakout could unlock substantial demand from both retail and institutional investors, particularly if the ETF approval brings greater visibility and legitimacy to HBAR as an investable asset.

Source: [1] HBAR ETF Approval Odds Hit 90%: Can the Price Rally from Here (https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/d4355-hbar-etf-approval-odds-hit-90percent-can-the-price-rally-from-here) [2] Analyst Targets 123% Rally as ETF Approval Odds Hit 90% (https://coingape.com/markets/hbar-price-forecast-analyst-targets-123-rally-as-etf-approval-odds-hit-90/)