HBAR's Critical Price Range and Impending Breakout: Technical and On-Chain Divergence Signal Bearish Continuation

The cryptocurrency market's volatility has once again placed Hedera (HBAR) under scrutiny as it navigates a critical juncture in its price trajectory. With the token hovering near $0.145 as of November 28, 2025, technical and on-chain indicators are painting a complex but coherent picture of bearish continuation. While recent institutional inflows and bullish divergences in momentum metrics hint at potential short-term resilience, the broader narrative remains dominated by weakening buyer strength, declining open interest, and bearish structural patterns. This analysis synthesizes key data points to argue that HBAR's path of least resistance is downward, with a critical $0.140 support level and a potential $0.165 recovery threshold shaping the near-term outlook.

Technical Analysis: Compressed Correction and Bearish Momentum

HBAR's price action over the past week has been characterized by a compressed corrective structure, oscillating within the $0.153–$0.156 range before retreating to test the $0.145 support zone. This pattern aligns with a bearish head-and-shoulders formation and a W-X-Y corrective wave, both of which suggest further downside toward $0.160–$0.166 according to technical analysis. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) have consistently signaled negative momentum, with no bullish crossovers observed despite a 96% spike in trading volume on November 28 according to CoinDesk.

A critical technical threshold to monitor is the $0.145 level, which has acted as a psychological floor for HBAR. According to Yellow's report, the price's recent stabilization above this level-accompanied by an upward turn in RSI-suggests weakening selling pressure and a potential trend reversal. However, this optimism is tempered by the fragility of the cup-and-handle bullish setup on the 4-hour chart. A close below $0.143 would invalidate this pattern, shifting the short-term outlook to bearish.

On-Chain Divergence: Institutional Accumulation vs. Retail Selling

On-chain metrics reveal a stark divergence between institutional and retail behavior. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator has turned upward, signaling accumulation by large holders. This contrasts with the broader market context, where HBAR has dropped 18.5% in the past week, testing the $0.145 support within a falling wedge pattern.

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio further underscores this divergence. HBAR's MVRV has entered the "opportunity zone," indicating that average traders are holding significant losses and the market may be undervalued. Historically, such low MVRV levels have preceded strong recovery rallies, but the current environment lacks the conviction seen in previous bullish cycles. Meanwhile, "mega whales" (wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC) are accumulating HBAR, while retail traders continue to sell off-a classic sign of a potential market bottom according to Santiment analysis.

Open Interest and Funding Rates: Bearish Confirmation

Derivatives markets provide additional confirmation of bearish sentiment. Open interest has declined from 48.53M to 48.42M, signaling reduced trader commitment and de-risking behavior. This weakening aligns with price softness and suggests fading confidence in the asset's ability to rebound. Negative funding rates further reinforce this narrative, as traders open short positions to profit from a potential decline.

While these metrics collectively point to bearish continuation, a nuanced caveat exists. The recent 2.5% surge to $0.1494 on November 28-driven by accelerated institutional flows-indicates pockets of buying interest. If HBAR can close above $0.165, it would validate the bullish case and open the path toward $0.22–$0.26 according to Messari analysis. However, a break below $0.16 would expose further support at $0.14, deepening the bearish scenario according to Santiment analysis.

Conclusion: A High-Probability Bearish Continuation

HBAR's technical and on-chain landscape is defined by a tug-of-war between institutional accumulation and broader bearish momentum. While the $0.145 support level and rising CMF suggest potential for a short-term rebound, the structural bearishness-evidenced by declining open interest, negative funding rates, and a fragile cup-and-handle pattern-points to a high-probability continuation of the downtrend. Investors should closely monitor the $0.140–$0.145 range, as a sustained break below this level could accelerate the decline toward $0.13. Conversely, a decisive close above $0.165 would signal a shift in sentiment, though such a move remains contingent on overcoming the current bearish inertia.

In this environment, caution is warranted. The market's mixed signals-bullish divergences in RSI and CMF versus bearish trends in open interest and funding rates-underscore the importance of disciplined risk management. For HBAR to reclaim its narrative, it must first navigate this critical price range with conviction.