HBAR's 4% Surge: Is On-Chain Growth Fueling a Sustainable Bull Case?

The recent 4% price surge in Hedera's HBAR token has sparked renewed interest in the blockchain's on-chain metrics, with Transactions Per Second (TPS), Total Value Locked (TVL), and holder count all showing notable growth. As of December 2025, the network's mainnet TPS hit 100, while testnet TPS climbed to 44, signaling increased developer and decentralized finance (DeFi) engagement according to recent analysis. Meanwhile, TVL rose to $67.1 million-a 2% daily increase-and the holder count expanded to 4.6 million, reflecting growing capital inflow and user participation according to data. These metrics suggest a potential shift in HBAR's value proposition, but whether this growth is sustainable hinges on deeper analysis of the ecosystem's fundamentals and risks.

On-Chain Metrics: A Mixed Picture of Growth

HBAR's on-chain activity paints a cautiously optimistic picture. The 72.9% surge in new account creation over 24 hours-reaching 2,620 new accounts-indicates rising organic adoption according to analysis. This aligns with broader trends in decentralized application (dApp) development, as Q3 2025 saw a 190% year-over-year growth in Hedera-based dApp activity according to reports. However, the disconnect between on-chain performance and ecosystem development remains a concern. While the network's TPS and TVL metrics are robust, many of Hedera's high-profile partnerships, such as Avery Dennison's atma.io and LG Art Lab, remain inactive or abandoned according to community discussion. This raises questions about whether the current growth is driven by genuine utility or speculative momentum.

HBAR's tokenomics further complicate the narrative. With a fixed maximum supply of 50 billion tokens and a circulating supply of ~42.24 billion, supply constraints are tightening as fewer new tokens are unlocked according to market analysis. This scarcity, combined with rising demand from enterprise partnerships and DeFi protocols like Stader and SaucerSwap, could theoretically support long-term value according to market reports. Yet, the token's price volatility-down 55% from its August peak to $0.135 by December 9, 2025, before rebounding to $0.170-highlights the risks of relying on on-chain metrics alone.

The transition to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) model also incentivizes long-term holding and active participation in network validation according to technical analysis. This aligns with HBAR's role as both a governance token and a utility token for transactions and smart contracts. Yet, the PoS model's effectiveness in securing the network and driving value accrual will depend on sustained staking participation and the absence of centralization risks.

Enterprise Adoption and Governance: A Double-Edged Sword

Hedera's hybrid governance model and carbon-negative certification position it as a compelling enterprise blockchain solution. Partnerships with Google, IBM, and Hyundai/Kia for carbon monitoring underscore its appeal to corporations seeking sustainable, scalable infrastructure according to industry analysis. The network's recent v0.67 upgrade, which improved EVM compatibility, further strengthens its position in the enterprise space according to technical reports. However, the success of these initiatives depends on execution. For instance, while Hedera's regulated tokenization and carbon credit tracking projects show promise, their real-world adoption remains unproven at scale according to industry reports.

Technical and Market Dynamics: A Path to $0.25?

From a technical perspective, HBAR's recent rebound from the $0.15 support level, coupled with an RSI near 52 and bullish MACD divergence, suggests short-term optimism according to technical analysis. Analysts project a potential breakout above $0.19 resistance, targeting $0.23–$0.25 by early 2026 according to market forecasts. These forecasts are bolstered by macroeconomic tailwinds, including Bitcoin ETF optimism and lower interest rates, which could drive broader crypto market inflows according to market analysis.

However, technical indicators alone cannot guarantee success. The token's ability to maintain its TVL and TPS growth amid regulatory uncertainty and competition from other layer-1 blockchains remains critical. For example, while TVL is projected to reach $1 billion by early 2026 according to market analysis, this would require consistent innovation in real-world asset tokenization and enterprise use cases. Without such progress, the current on-chain metrics may prove to be a temporary spike rather than a sustainable bull case.

Conclusion: A Cautious Bull Case

HBAR's 4% surge and rising on-chain metrics suggest a strengthening value proposition, particularly in enterprise adoption and DeFi utility. The network's TPS, TVL, and holder count growth indicate growing organic usage and capital inflow, supported by strategic upgrades and partnerships. However, the gap between on-chain performance and active ecosystem development-exemplified by inactive projects and speculative price swings-remains a red flag.

For HBAR to solidify its bull case, the Hedera ecosystem must demonstrate sustained innovation in real-world applications, active dApp development, and regulatory compliance. Investors should monitor key milestones, such as a potential spot HBAR ETF approval and the success of v0.67's EVM compatibility, as these could catalyze institutional adoption. While the current trajectory is encouraging, the token's long-term success will depend on its ability to translate on-chain growth into tangible, scalable utility.