HBAR's 20% Rebound: Flow Metrics and Key Levels to Watch

The immediate rebound began after selling pressure peaked at a precise capitulation level. Traders watched as price action formed a long wick near $0.07766, signaling the exhaustion of distribution and a potential shift in market structure.

The next major hurdle is the immediate resistance at $0.107. A sustained break above this level would confirm a bullish reversal from the established falling wedge pattern, providing a clear signal for the trend to shift higher.

For a meaningful recovery to resume, the price must eventually challenge the broader bearish channel's monthly high at $0.134. This level represents the major overhead supply zone that must be cleared to validate a return to pre-correction territory.

Exchange Flow and Leverage: Assessing the Rally's Strength

The rally's speculative weight is clear in the futures market. The futures-to-spot volume ratio sits at 4x, indicating that for every dollar traded on spot exchanges, four dollars are being traded on leveraged futures. This high ratio signals that the recent price move is being driven by leveraged bets, not organic spot demand.

The risk of a sharp reversal is present. In the past 24 hours, $1.6 million in futures positions were liquidated, and the open interest remains elevated at $108.7 million. This concentration of leveraged capital creates a vulnerability; a sudden price swing could trigger further cascading liquidations, amplifying volatility.

More fundamentally, the rally faces a deep liquidity drain. The token is down nearly 47% over the past three months and has lost almost 67% from its September highs. This isn't a short-term correction but a prolonged outflow of capital, which weakens the structural support needed for a sustained recovery.

Catalysts and Risks: What to Watch

The rally's conviction hinges on a sustained volume spike above the immediate resistance at $0.107. Without this flow confirmation, the move remains a speculative bounce, vulnerable to the high leverage already present in the market. A break above this level is the first signal that buying pressure is shifting from dip accumulation to a broader trend reversal.

The primary near-term risk is the failure of support at $0.097. A decisive break below this level would likely extend downside momentum toward the key liquidity floor at $0.073. This zone represents the last major cluster of demand before the capitulation point, and its loss would signal a resumption of the bearish channel's downtrend.

For a true reversal to take hold, the market needs more than price action. The structural weakness is clear: Total Value Locked has fallen more than 50% since September, and spot ETF inflows remain absent. Until on-chain liquidity stabilizes and institutional capital begins to flow, the price lacks the fundamental support needed to sustain a recovery.