HBAR's 15% Drop: Flow Analysis and Breakout Potential

The recent price action for HBAR has been severe. The token is down almost 18.5% over the past seven days, a sharp decline that has left it underperforming both the broader crypto market and its smart contract peers. This drop has pushed the price to a level 81.05% below its all-time high, highlighting the magnitude of the retracement from its peak.

This move has occurred against a backdrop of weakening correlation with Bitcoin. The price relationship has now fallen to a correlation of 0.30, a significant drop from the high 0.70s or 0.80s seen with other major coins. This decoupling suggests HBAR's recent weakness may be driven more by its own internal dynamics than by broad Bitcoin-led selling pressure.

The current price is testing a key technical structure. It remains clinging to the lower boundary of a falling wedge that has been active since October, a pattern that is technically bullish but now under direct pressure. The combination of a deep drawdown, a notable drop in BTC correlation, and a critical technical support level sets the stage for a potential breakout in either direction.

Flow and Divergence: Accumulation Signals

The immediate trading picture shows a market in transition. Over the past 24 hours, HBAR has seen a robust trading volume of $128 million. This elevated activity, occurring alongside a price bounce, suggests a shift in market dynamics, with significant capital moving through the asset.

A key indicator of institutional or large-scale participation is turning positive. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) recently broke above its downward trend line, signaling that large wallets are increasing their exposure. This is a critical development, as it provides a flow-based confirmation that the recent price action may be supported by buying from sophisticated players, not just retail traders.

This buying pressure is also reflected in momentum divergence. A bullish divergence has appeared on the RSI, where the price made a lower low while the momentum indicator formed a higher low. This pattern, which has recurred after a major weekly drop, indicates that selling pressure is weakening even as the price declines. The setup gains weight because this divergence now coincides with the positive CMF signal, suggesting a potential accumulation phase is underway.

Breakout Potential and Key Levels

The immediate technical setup is defined by a single, high-stakes pattern. HBAR is testing the lower boundary of a falling wedge active since October 10. This structure is inherently bullish, but its integrity is now under direct pressure. The next major move hinges entirely on whether this support holds or breaks.

The immediate hurdle for a bullish reversal is the $0.155 level. A sustained break above $0.155 would remove a key technical impediment and confirm the recent bullish divergence. This could trigger a move toward the wedge's upper trend line and the next major resistance at $0.198. The positive flow signals from the Chaikin Money Flow add weight to this scenario, suggesting large wallets are positioning for a bounce.

The primary risk is a breakdown below the wedge support. If the price closes under the lower trend line, the bullish pattern fails and the structure turns bearish. This would expose deeper downside, with the next major support level at $0.145. The setup is fragile, as the lower trend line has only two clear touchpoints, making the downside case stronger if selling pressure intensifies.