HBAR's $0.21 Support Test: A Correction or the Start of a Downtrend?

HBAR Price Faces Fresh Selling After Two-Month Calm

HBAR, the native token of Hedera Hashgraph, experienced a 5% decline between October 8 and 9, dropping from $0.22 to $0.21 amid heightened institutional caution and 5.4% volatility Coindesk^[1]. The selloff was concentrated between 01:00 and 08:00 on October 9, with trading volumes surpassing 100 million units per hour, indicating coordinated corporate treasury actions. Key resistance was observed at $0.22, while institutional support emerged near $0.21, defining critical technical levels during the period.

The price action aligns with broader market uncertainty driven by the U.S. government shutdown, which has stalled SEC operations and delayed ETF approvals Coindesk^[1]. Canary Capital's HBAR and Litecoin ETF filings remain pending, while Bitwise recently adjusted its Solana ETF strategy to remain competitive. Analysts suggest that until regulatory clarity returns, corporate treasuries are likely to maintain defensive stances in digital asset exposure.

Technical indicators further underscore the bearish sentiment. HBAR's Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) turned negative, signaling declining investor confidence and capital outflows . The token's 10-week descending wedge pattern, which has persisted since late July, remains intact, with a potential $32 million short liquidation risk if HBAR breaches $0.248 Yahoo Finance^[3]. Meanwhile, long liquidations reached 91.2%, the highest among altcoins, complicating any upward momentum The Market Periodical^[2].

Institutional activity has been mixed. Whale accumulators added approximately 127.8 million HBAR (worth $26.8 million) over two days, yet the Smart Money Index (SMI) flattened, reflecting reduced confidence in a near-term rebound . On-chain data also showed a 12% decline in the past 30 days, with social dominance dropping 55% to 0.74%, indicating waning retail interest .

Critical support and resistance levels are now in focus. A breakdown below $0.1885 could expose HBAR to a 10% downside risk, targeting $0.19 . Conversely, a sustained rebound above $0.2212 may open the path to $0.2636, though bears currently hold the upper hand . The Smart Money Index (SMI) at 1.108 further signals reduced institutional accumulation .

Market participants remain cautious as HBAR navigates a fragile phase. While institutional buying at $0.228 was noted in earlier August, bearish technical indicators such as a negative weighted funding rate (-0.0016%) and declining SMI suggest continued pressure . The token's ability to stabilize above $0.21 will be pivotal in determining whether the recent selloff is a temporary correction or a deeper bearish trend.