Havells India's Solar Gamble: A Bright Bet on Goldi Solar’s Rising Sun?

The sun is rising on India’s renewable energy sector, and Havells India is betting big to catch the rays. The $68 million (₹600 crore) strategic minority stake in Goldi Solar Private Limited isn’t just a financial move—it’s a bold pivot into a sector primed to dominate global energy markets. Let’s dissect this deal, its risks, and why it could either shine or sizzle.

The Deal: A Strategic Play or a Costly Gamble?
Havells, long a leader in electrical products, is now wading into solar manufacturing through a partnership rather than going it alone. The investment secures an 8.9–9.24% equity stake in Goldi Solar, depending on the final size of its ongoing ₹1,050–1,300 crore fundraise. The valuation? A lofty 20x EV/EBITDA multiple based on Goldi’s projected FY25 EBITDA of roughly ₹273–309 crore (assuming 8–9% margins on ₹3,420 crore revenue).

But here’s the rub: Is this multiple justified? Let’s compare. . If Goldi’s margins slip below projections—or if the sector faces oversupply—this could turn into a pricey entry.

Goldi Solar: A Rising Star or a Fading Flame?
Goldi’s FY24 revenue of ₹1,757 crore more than doubled to an estimated ₹3,420 crore in FY25, fueled by India’s solar boom. The company’s 10.7 GW module capacity is set to jump to 14.7 GW by July 2025, with domestic cell manufacturing ambitions within 18 months. This vertical integration could slash costs and lock in supply chains—a critical edge in a subsidy-driven market.

Yet, scaling isn’t without risks. India’s solar sector is crowded, with giants like Tata Power, Adani, and ReNew Power already racing to dominate. Goldi’s ability to maintain margins amid rising competition—and potential price wars—will determine if its valuation holds.

Havells’ Playbook: Smart Move or Overextension?
By partnering instead of building, Havells avoids the capital-intensive gamble of solar manufacturing. The master supply agreement ensures steady module and cell access for its solar products (inverters, cables, etc.), shielding it from supply chain disruptions. This move positions Havells to capitalize on India’s National Solar Mission, which targets 500 GW of renewable capacity by 2030.

But here’s the catch: Regulatory hurdles loom large. The deal requires CCI approval by June 30, 2025. Delays or antitrust concerns could unravel the partnership. Plus, Goldi’s valuation assumes flawless execution of its expansion plans—a big ask in a sector where execution often trips up aspirational firms.

The Bottom Line: Betting on the Sun’s Future
This deal hinges on two certainties: India’s solar growth and Goldi’s execution. With the government pushing domestic manufacturing through PLI schemes and global demand soaring, Goldi’s 14.7 GW capacity by mid-2025 positions it well. Havells’ 8.9–9.24% stake gives it a seat at the table while shielding it from manufacturing risks.

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Final Verdict:
This is a calculated risk worth taking. Goldi’s valuation may seem high, but at 20x EV/EBITDA, it’s in line with sector peers in growth phases. Havells’ strategic flexibility and Goldi’s expansion plans align with India’s renewable targets, making this a long-term win. However, investors must keep a close eye on regulatory timelines and Goldi’s margin sustainability. If the sun shines on Goldi’s execution, Havells could emerge as a solar powerhouse. If not? Well, even sunny days can turn stormy.

Investment Takeaway:
The deal is a “Buy” for those willing to bet on India’s solar future and Havells’ strategic agility. For the cautious, wait for CCI approval and track Goldi’s Q3 FY25 EBITDA results. The sun may rise for both companies—but only if Goldi’s panels stay in the black.